智利出口再超预期，需求仍有支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile" rating for lithium carbonate [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, due to good production schedules of cathodes and cells, there is still support for the direct demand of lithium carbonate. Considering the unresolved situation in Zimbabwe, the overall outlook is bullish. In the long - term, the situation in the Middle East provides support for the narrative of new energy replacing traditional energy. The strategy is to look for opportunities to go long on dips [3][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chile's Exports Exceed Expectations Again, and Demand Still Has Support - This week (3/2 - 3/6), lithium salt prices dropped sharply and then fluctuated. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 11.3% month - on - month to 156,200 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 9.7% and 9.9% month - on - month to 155,300 yuan/ton and 151,800 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide fluctuated accordingly [12] - On the supply side: 1) Chile's exports exceeded expectations again. In February 2026, Chile exported 22,400 tons of lithium salts to China, a month - on - month increase of 32% and a year - on - year increase of 86%. It shipped 12,100 tons of lithium sulfate to China (equivalent to 6,100 tons of LCE), a month - on - month decrease of 57% and a year - on - year increase of 17%. 2) The disturbance of mining licenses in Jiangxi continued. There were rumors that a mine in Yichun would stop production for license renewal. The company later said it planned to complete the annual mining plan before the suspension to support subsequent production, but concerns about Jiangxi's mining licenses still remained. 3) The progress in Zimbabwe was below expectations. On March 3, the Zimbabwean cabinet officially approved the export ban, and the attitude after the talks with Chinese - funded enterprises was tougher than expected. The specific time for resuming exports was still unclear, and it was expected to affect the monthly supply by 12,000 tons of LCE [1][14] - On the demand side: In March, the production schedules generally met the previous high - growth expectations. In April, some institutions surveyed the downstream production schedules, expecting a 5% month - on - month increase in lithium iron phosphate production and a 6% month - on - month decrease in ternary production, which might drive the monthly battery - related demand for lithium carbonate to exceed 130,000 tons. In the short - term, demand still had support. In the medium - term, the market generally recognized the high growth of energy storage, but was skeptical about power batteries. In the long - term, if the war between the US and Iran continued and oil prices soared, it might lead to the possibility of power and energy storage demand exceeding expectations again [2][15] - This week, SMM's inventory decreased by 720 tons, and Fubao's inventory decreased by 164 tons. After updating import and export data, it might be difficult to reduce domestic lithium carbonate inventory in March. The expectation of inventory reduction in April was still maintained. The spot and futures trading was okay, with most transactions at around 150,000 yuan. The basis of traders' overall quotes was relatively strong [2][15] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Wanhua Chemical's environmental assessment for 1.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate was approved. The total investment exceeded 12 billion yuan, and its radical capacity expansion might impact the spot demand structure of lithium carbonate and force lithium salt manufacturers to accelerate the transformation to the long - term contract model [17] - Jiangxi Yiyuan New Energy's lithium iron phosphate project was put into production. The project had a total investment of 2.5 billion yuan, planning an annual production of 30,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, 30,000 tons of iron phosphate precursor, and 40,000 tons of battery recycling comprehensive utilization products [17] - The first - phase project of Gansu Jinlin Lithium Battery, with an annual production of 100,000 tons of phosphate - based lithium - ion battery cathode materials, was put into production. The project had a total investment of 3.135 billion yuan and was constructed in two phases [18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Price Trends of Ore and Salt Are Consistent - Relevant data include the spot average price of lithium concentrate, the monthly inventory of lithium ore samples, the closing price of the GFEX lithium carbonate main contract, and the term structure of GFEX lithium carbonate [19][21][23] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Chile's Exports Exceed Expectations Again - Related data involve domestic weekly production of lithium carbonate, SMM weekly inventory of lithium carbonate, domestic spot average price of lithium carbonate and the price difference between electric and industrial grades, the basis of lithium carbonate, domestic spot average price of lithium hydroxide, the price difference between domestic and overseas lithium hydroxide, the price difference between domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, and the theoretical production profit of lithium salt plants. Also included are Chile's monthly export volume of lithium carbonate to China, China's lithium carbonate import volume, South America's lithium carbonate export volume to China, Chile's shipping volume of lithium sulfate to China, and Chile's average export price of lithium carbonate to various countries [28][33][43] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Demand in March Still Has Support - Relevant data cover the monthly production of SMM ternary materials, the monthly production of SMM lithium iron phosphate, the price trend of lithium iron phosphate, the average price of lithium iron phosphate cells (power type), the price trend of ternary materials, the price trend of cobalt acid lithium, and the average price of cobalt acid lithium cells (consumer type) [49][51][54] 3.3.4 Terminal: Pay Attention to the Subsequent Power Sales Situation - Related data include China's power battery installation volume and year - on - year growth rate, China's power battery installation proportion in the current month, China's new energy vehicle production and sales year - on - year growth rate, and China's new energy vehicle penetration rate [64][65][67]