风波未平，尚需观察

Market Overview - The government work report's overall tone and policy measures align with expectations, but external disturbances such as the US-Iran conflict and changes in US tariff policies may further increase market volatility [1][2] - In terms of allocation, there is a recommendation to focus more on certainty, with short-term premiums on price increases and stable dividend markets, making sectors like chemicals, machinery, storage, and banking still valuable for allocation [1][2] Government Work Report Insights - The growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, down from last year's 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4% corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.23 trillion yuan from the previous year [11] - The report emphasizes maintaining substantial fiscal spending while optimizing expenditure structure, particularly in supporting consumption and investment [11][12] External Risks - The ongoing US-Iran conflict is expected to escalate, with low probabilities for peace talks in the short term, which could impact US stocks and global capital markets [2][16] - The conflict's potential duration is anticipated to be extended, with US military actions possibly lasting several weeks [17] Industry Allocation - The first benign adjustment period in the growth industry cycle typically lasts around one month, with historical declines in major indices ranging from 10%-20% [19] - Current adjustments show that the maximum decline for the Shanghai Composite Index is less than 3%, and for the ChiNext Index, it is 5.5%, indicating a divergence from historical patterns [19][21] Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has seen a rise due to increased risk aversion amid the US-Iran conflict, with a weekly increase of 1.64%, ranking fifth among major industries [30][31] - The current dividend yield for banks is around 4.7%, which is expected to provide support for the sector in the short term [33] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Sectors with clear price increase trends and expectations, such as chemicals and machinery [36] 2. Dividend assets like banks that can provide stability amid increased market volatility [36] 3. Seasonal opportunities in infrastructure construction, particularly in strong sectors [37] 4. The AI industry chain as a core direction for the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility [37]