国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属周报合集-20260308

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Views - Aluminum: Affected by the Iran and Strait blockade news, overseas supply is tightening. In the short - term, the micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak, but the price may be driven by overseas factors. Alumina spot is stable, and the trading sentiment on the disk has a greater impact [6][7]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the pricing center moves up. In the short term, the AD price may continue to fluctuate strongly under cost support and moderate supply release [127]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to the supply - side contradictions, and the zinc price volatility intensifies. In the long - term, the supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate the price, and the zinc price operation center is expected to move up [185][188]. - Lead: With the addition of new delivery products, the price fluctuates weakly. The lead market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price is expected to remain weak overall [259][265]. - Tin: The short - term tight pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to stabilize and rebound. The macro wind bias and the news of Myanmar's resumption of production have an impact on the price, but the fundamentals support the price [305][308]. - Platinum: Generally follows the trend of gold and silver, with wide - range fluctuations. Palladium: High - frequency data are all pessimistic. Platinum is expected to perform stronger than palladium, and the palladium price is expected to remain weak [400][401]. Summary by Category Aluminum & Alumina - Market Performance: The overseas aluminum price is strong, and LME aluminum has a significant increase. The price of alumina is under pressure due to the supply - demand pattern [6][8]. - Supply: The supply of overseas electrolytic aluminum is affected by the situation in the Middle East, with actual production cuts and supply disruptions. The domestic alumina supply is relatively loose, and the total inventory continues to accumulate [6][48]. - Demand: The short - term micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak, and the downstream processing profit is at a low level [7]. - Inventory: The aluminum ingot social inventory has increased significantly, and the alumina total inventory has also continued to increase [7][48]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Performance: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the pricing center moves up. The ADC12 - A00 spread fluctuates sharply [123][125]. - Supply: The supply of waste aluminum is relatively loose, and the production of recycled aluminum is expected to gradually increase [127]. - Demand: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the actual orders of enterprises are average [127]. - Inventory: The visible inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has decreased [127]. Zinc - Market Performance: The zinc price fluctuates sharply. The domestic inventory has increased, and the processing fee is at the bottom [185][188]. - Supply: The supply of zinc concentrate is marginally loose, but the subsequent supply pressure of refined zinc is still relatively large [188]. - Demand: The downstream demand is slowly recovering, and the demand for concentrated restocking is expected to be released [188]. - Inventory: The inventory of zinc ore and smelter finished products is at a high level, and the inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase [192]. Lead - Market Performance: The lead price rebounds slightly and then falls back. The spot is at a flat - water state, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [259][265]. - Supply: The production of primary lead increases, and the production of recycled lead is expected to gradually increase [265]. - Demand: The demand for lead - acid batteries recovers, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to decrease [265]. - Inventory: The total inventory of lead ingots in five regions has increased, and the inventory growth rate has slowed down [261][265]. Tin - Market Performance: The tin price falls from a high level, mainly due to the impact of the Iran conflict on the macro - risk preference and the expectation of resumption of production [305][308]. - Supply: The tight pattern of the supply side has not changed significantly [308]. - Demand: The sharp correction of the tin price stimulates the release of demand, and the spot maintains a premium [308]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory and futures inventory have decreased [329]. Platinum & Palladium - Market Performance: Platinum generally follows the trend of gold and silver, with wide - range fluctuations. Palladium's high - frequency data are all pessimistic [400]. - Supply: The mining cost of platinum and palladium in South Africa is expected to increase, but the impact on production is uncertain [401]. - Demand: The overall sentiment of the precious metal sector is pessimistic, and the demand is affected by the macro - liquidity [401]. - Inventory: The inventory of NYMEX platinum has decreased slightly, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium has increased slightly [402].