Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-08 12:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili-W (9626.HK) [3] Core Insights - Bilibili's revenue for Q4 2025 reached 8.32 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 8%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2% [8] - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2025 was 880 million RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 94%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6%, up 5 percentage points year-over-year [8] - The company is expected to accelerate its investment in AI in 2026, which is anticipated to enhance advertising efficiency and drive revenue growth [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Bilibili are as follows: 30,348 million RMB for 2025, 33,371 million RMB for 2026, 36,333 million RMB for 2027, and 39,054 million RMB for 2028, with growth rates of 13.1%, 10.0%, 8.9%, and 7.5% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are 2,588 million RMB for 2025, 3,060 million RMB for 2026, 3,953 million RMB for 2027, and 4,824 million RMB for 2028, with growth rates of 6.7%, 18%, 29%, and 22% respectively [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) based on adjusted net profit is projected to be 6.15 RMB for 2025, increasing to 11.46 RMB by 2028 [2] User and Content Metrics - Bilibili's monthly active users (MAU) reached 366 million in Q4 2025, up 8% year-over-year, while daily active users (DAU) were 113 million, reflecting a 10% increase [8] - The average daily usage time was 107 minutes, also up 8% year-over-year, indicating strong user engagement [8] - The number of monetized content creators (UP主) increased to nearly 3 million, with an average income growth of 21% year-over-year [8] Advertising and Game Revenue - Advertising revenue for Q4 2025 was 3.04 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 27%, driven by improved ad supply and effectiveness [8] - Mobile game revenue for Q4 2025 was 1.54 billion RMB, down 14% year-over-year due to a high base from the previous year [8] - The company plans to launch new games in 2026, including "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" and "Escape from Duckkov," which are expected to enhance its gaming portfolio [8]