油价上涨如何影响我国通胀走势？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, international crude oil prices have soared again. The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most crucial oil chokepoint, has almost come to a standstill due to the US - Iran conflict, leading to a continuous rise in international oil prices. WTI and Brent crude oil have recorded their largest weekly increases since 1983 and 1991 respectively [1][11]. - A 10% increase in oil prices may push up the PPI by about 0.4 percentage points. Crude oil, as a basic production material, is widely used in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industrial chains. The relevant industries account for about 12.4% of the PPI [1][12]. - The actual impact of oil prices on China's inflation depends on how the conflict develops. Bloomberg Economics has made three scenario analyses: cease - fire (medium - high probability), continuous war (medium - high probability), and regime change in Iran (low probability). Different scenarios will have different impacts on China's PPI [2][18]. - The bond market may remain volatile. It is recommended to moderately extend the duration when there are adjustments. The bond supply shock trading may come to an end. The probability of interest rate decline is higher from the Two Sessions to the Politburo meeting in April. However, after the 10 - year Treasury bond rate breaks below 1.80%, the market is cautious, waiting for the increase in interest rate cut expectations [2][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the bond market successively traded risk appetite and expectations of the Two Sessions. Yields remained volatile overall, with short - end performance stronger than long - end. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds both rose by 1bp [10]. - International oil prices soared due to the Middle East geopolitical conflicts. As of Friday's close, WTI crude oil futures rose by more than 36% this week, and Brent crude oil futures rose by about 29% [11]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds, and funding rates declined. From March 2nd to March 6th, the central bank's open - market net withdrawal was 136.34 billion yuan. R007 and DR007 decreased by 2bp and 9bp respectively compared with February 28th [22][24]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields remained volatile this week, with short - end performance being strong. Except for 10Y and 30Y, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds declined. Except for the 50Y - 30Y spread, other key - term Treasury bond spreads widened [31]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - As of March 6th, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds rebounded to 31%, the 50Y - 30Y Treasury bond spread narrowed by 2bp compared with February 28th, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread widened by 0.3bp to 50bp. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.03 years to 2.56 years. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [35][39]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds changed from net financing to net repayment, the net financing of local government bonds increased, and the net repayment of policy - financial bonds decreased. Next week, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase, while the issuance scale of local government bonds will decrease. This week, inter - bank certificates of deposit changed from net repayment to net financing, and the average issuance rate continued to decline [49][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In February, the manufacturing PMI declined seasonally, and the export sector was under pressure. Since March, travel has been stronger than the Spring Festival seasonality, and industrial production has improved marginally. Real - estate transactions, consumption, export, and industrial production indicators have shown different trends [57]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The US non - farm payrolls data in February was disappointing. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasury bond rates both rose by 18bp. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread remained flat at 59bp. European bond markets declined, the Chinese bond market rose, and the South Korean bond market declined. Emerging - market bond markets also declined [65][66]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted this week. The Nanhua Crude Oil Index rose significantly by 31%, the US dollar index rose, while the Nanhua Live Pig Index and Shanghai Copper declined. The performance of major asset classes this week was: crude oil > US dollar > rebar > Chinese bonds > Shanghai gold > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > CSI 300 > convertible bonds > Shanghai copper > live pigs > CSI 1000 [70]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - The calendar from March 9th to March 13th, 2026, includes information on liquidity投放 and maturity, government bond supply, fundamental data, and important domestic and international events [76].