全球资产配置每周聚焦（20260227-20260306）：复盘两次石油危机与俄乌冲突下全球资产表现-20260308

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant oil supply shock, causing oil prices to surge by 28% and raising inflation risks in the U.S.[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 18 basis points to 4.15%, while the U.S. dollar index rose by 1.34%[3] - The Korean stock market experienced a notable decline, and the A-share market also saw a comprehensive drop[3] Group 2: Historical Context of Oil Crises - During the first oil crisis (1973-1974), oil prices surged due to the Middle East war and OPEC's embargo, leading to a significant rise in U.S. CPI and a bear market in U.S. bonds[22] - The second oil crisis (1979-1981) saw oil prices rise again, but the S&P 500 was at a relatively low valuation, limiting its downside risk, while the Fed's aggressive rate hikes helped restore market confidence[22] Group 3: Asset Performance Analysis - Post the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the market's focus shifted from war risk premiums to the inflationary pressures caused by high oil prices[3] - In the three months following the oil crises, U.S. inflation showed signs of marginal decline, but the economy faced persistent downward pressure[23] Group 4: Capital Flows and Investment Trends - In the past week, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market amounted to $30.7 billion, while domestic capital inflows reached $5.2 billion[3] - Emerging market funds have seen significant inflows, while developed markets have experienced outflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards higher-risk assets[3] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - As of March 6, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is at 93.1% of its historical average, indicating it is undervalued compared to the S&P 500[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300 remains relatively high, suggesting better allocation value in the Chinese market compared to global counterparts[3]