债券策略：两会定调看债市关注点及潜在预期差

Group 1 - The policy direction from the Two Sessions emphasizes pragmatic and high-quality development, with a more optimized fiscal structure [1][7] - The government work report sets the GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5.0%, down from around 5% last year, indicating a more realistic approach without weakening fiscal efforts [7][12] - Fiscal spending for consumption is increased to 350 billion yuan, up from 300 billion yuan last year, which is expected to support demand and potentially drive up prices [7][8] Group 2 - There is room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions within the year, but the timing remains uncertain; fiscal efforts may steepen the yield curve [26][27] - The focus of monetary policy in 2026 may shift from lowering policy rates to ensuring smooth transmission of monetary policy [26][27] - The probability of a rate cut in March is low, with a greater likelihood of an RRR cut, which may have limited impact on the bond market [27][28] Group 3 - The downward space for the 10-year government bond yield is limited, and long-term bonds may enter a "profit-taking" window [44][46] - The bond market may face increased supply of long-term bonds, which could steepen the yield curve, as banks' capacity to absorb long-term bonds may be tested [28][29] - The core contradiction in the bond market will be the interplay between price recovery, nominal growth restoration, and asset allocation rebalancing [46]