EBSCN·2026-03-08 14:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [6] Core Views - The increase in shareholding by the major shareholder reflects confidence in the company's long-term development prospects, with a planned total investment of no less than RMB 20 billion and no more than RMB 40 billion over the next 12 months [2][4] - Geopolitical risks are driving oil prices upward, with expectations of sustained high prices in the medium to long term. CNOOC's oil and gas production is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.0% for oil and 10.5% for gas from 2021 to 2024 [3] - The company is focused on cost control and increasing production, with a significant reduction in costs compared to domestic and international competitors, enhancing its competitive edge [3] Financial Summary - The forecast for net profit for 2025 has been adjusted down by 9% to RMB 125.4 billion, with expected net profits of RMB 139.8 billion and RMB 144.3 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively, translating to EPS of RMB 2.64, RMB 2.94, and RMB 3.04 [4][5] - Revenue projections show a slight decline in 2025 to RMB 406.9 billion, followed by growth to RMB 436.0 billion in 2026 and RMB 445.4 billion in 2027 [5][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease gradually from 18.58% in 2023 to 14.79% in 2027, indicating a potential shift in profitability dynamics [12]