2026年2月美国就业数据点评：就业降温，地缘升温

Employment Data Insights - In February 2026, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly below market expectations[2] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, while the labor participation rate remained stable at 62%[2] - Hourly wage growth maintained a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with a year-on-year growth rate rising to 3.8%[2] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector saw a job loss of 28,000, primarily due to strike activities, while federal government employment decreased by 10,000, marking a total reduction of 330,000 jobs since October 2024[2] - The long-term unemployment figure (27 weeks or more) stood at 1.9 million, significantly higher than the 1.5 million reported in the same month last year, representing 25.3% of total unemployment[2] Market Implications - The weak labor market data raises concerns about a potential shift towards stagflation, with market expectations adjusting accordingly[2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to rising oil prices, which may further elevate inflation expectations[2] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by the dual pressures of a cooling job market and escalating energy prices, with interest rate cut expectations now pushed to September 2026[2] Asset Class Projections - In the context of delayed interest rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields are likely to rise, and the U.S. dollar index may also strengthen[2] - Risk assets, particularly the Nasdaq, are showing signs of weakness, with a potential end to the upward trend if key support levels are breached[2] - Short-term oil price increases are expected to persist, while gold may find support amid stagflation concerns, necessitating caution in the copper market[2] Risk Factors - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could lead to significant impacts on trade and financial markets[14] - Further geopolitical crises, particularly in the Middle East, may heighten global risk aversion and market volatility[14] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could exert additional pressure on the global economic environment[14]