日本股市策略周报-20260308

Investment Focus - The report highlights that the Japanese stock market is experiencing a phase of adjustment due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has increased uncertainty in global energy supply [1][3] - Japan's stock market, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern crude oil, has shown significant volatility, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 5.49% to 55,620.84 and the TOPIX index falling by 5.63% to 3,716.93 last week [3][6] - Despite short-term geopolitical risks dominating market sentiment, the fundamentals of the Japanese stock market remain largely unchanged, supported by domestic economic policy expectations, corporate earnings, and the AI industry cycle [1][3][23] Market Performance - The report notes that the WTI crude oil price surged from $65 per barrel to $90 due to the conflict, raising concerns about stagflation and putting pressure on global risk assets [3][4] - Japan's economy is particularly sensitive to energy supply uncertainties, with over 90% of its crude oil imports coming from the Middle East, primarily through the Strait of Hormuz [4][5] - The report indicates that if oil prices continue to rise, it could erode consumer purchasing power and suppress domestic consumption, which constitutes about half of Japan's GDP [5][6] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor and AI-related stocks, which had previously led the market, experienced notable pullbacks, while defense-related stocks also saw declines despite increased demand for weapons due to the conflict [7][8] - Conversely, funds have shifted towards domestic demand-driven sectors such as warehousing and gaming, with the TSE Growth Market 250 index showing resilience, only slightly declining by less than 1% [7][8] - The software sector continued to outperform, with companies like Fujitsu and TrendMicro seeing stock price increases, reflecting market confidence in the sustainability of digital transformation demands in Japan [8][9] Long-term Outlook - The report emphasizes that the recent market adjustments are viewed as temporary fluctuations due to external shocks rather than a fundamental reversal of Japan's economic trends, which have been improving over the years [9] - Japan's economy is gradually emerging from a prolonged deflationary environment, with structural changes in wage growth, corporate investment, and pricing mechanisms becoming evident [9] - The report suggests that Japan's high-end manufacturing advantages, particularly in semiconductor equipment and precision machinery, are likely to benefit from the ongoing global technology cycle, supporting future profit growth and valuation improvements [9]