固定收益策略报告：又见资产荒-20260308

Group 1 - The bond market has shown resilience, with a trend of first declining and then recovering, driven by strong demand for coupon assets, leading to significant compression of spreads [12][13] - The performance of various bond types since March indicates that 5-year AAA urban investment bonds and medium-term notes have yielded 30 to 32 basis points, outperforming the 20 basis points from 10-year government bonds [12][20] - The capital gains from coupon assets have contributed to half of the overall returns, highlighting the aggressive buying behavior in the market [12][13] Group 2 - The concentration of funds in coupon assets was anticipated, but the depth of the market exceeded expectations, with the absolute returns and credit spreads nearing yearly lows [5][20] - The current market dynamics reveal a significant polarization in buying power, particularly in the 3 to 5-year segment of bonds, with public funds being the primary drivers of this trend [4][54] - The lack of clear macroeconomic guidance for long-term bonds has made betting on interest rates challenging, leading institutions to focus on enhancing coupon yields as a defensive strategy [5][31] Group 3 - The strategy execution suggests a notable deterioration in risk-reward ratios, with a recommendation to focus on short-duration bonds to mitigate potential drawdown risks [6][31] - For accounts with unstable liabilities, it is advised to consider high-quality urban investment bonds with a maturity of 2 years or less, despite their lower absolute yields [6][31] - The recommendation for longer-duration credit bonds is to maintain a strict yield threshold of above 2%, indicating a cautious approach to investment in this segment [6][31] Group 4 - The current market structure indicates a significant shift towards public funds, with net purchases of 3 to 5-year bonds reaching 547 billion yuan, surpassing previous bull market levels [4][52] - The buying behavior of public funds has shown a rare characteristic of one-sided net inflows, with minimal profit-taking actions observed [52][54] - The ongoing trend of public funds focusing on 3 to 5-year bonds reflects a search for yield in a low-return environment, further emphasizing the need for strategic asset allocation [54][31]