GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-08 15:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Tuya Smart (TUYA.N) [1] Core Insights - The company demonstrates robust revenue growth and significant improvement in profitability, with a notable increase in AI developers and substantial progress in its AI strategy [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $354.04 million, $393.54 million, and $445.44 million for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.0%, 11.2%, and 13.2% [4][8] - The net profit is projected to rise significantly, reaching $67.86 million, $80.48 million, and $96.74 million for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, with growth rates of 17.2%, 18.6%, and 20.2% respectively [4][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is forecasted at $321.79 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. The PaaS business is expected to generate $231.2 million, up 6.5%, while the SaaS business is projected to reach $44.9 million, growing by 13.4% [4][8] - The overall gross margin is anticipated to be 48.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit of $57.89 million for 2025 [4][8] - The company has approximately 3,000 PaaS platform customers, with premium customers contributing about 88.3% of PaaS revenue, and over 1.8 million AI developers, marking a 37% increase from 2024 [8] AI Strategy Progress - The number of AI developers on the platform has significantly increased, with the company launching around 16,000 AI agents and new products such as the AI Life Assistant and Physical AI Engine (PAE), indicating a shift towards replicable AI applications and monetizable products [8] - The expansion of the AI ecosystem is seen as a crucial foundation for future commercialization, with the dual drivers of PaaS platform connectivity and AI empowerment being central to the company's sustained growth [8]