ASMPT：看好公司进一步聚焦先进封装业务-20260309

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 146 from HKD 103.6 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 39.59 billion (USD 5.089 billion) for Q4 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2% [1]. - The company is focusing on advanced packaging business, with strong demand expected due to the evolution of higher-layer HBM and complex packaging architectures [1][3]. - The company plans to divest its NEXX business to optimize its asset structure and enhance profitability [1][4]. Business Segments - The SEMI business generated revenue of HKD 19.11 billion in Q4 2025, up 19.5% year-on-year and 9.4% quarter-on-quarter, driven by AI-related applications [2]. - The SMT business saw strong performance with revenue reaching HKD 20.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.0%, primarily due to large orders from AI servers and electric vehicles [2]. Advanced Packaging - The company forecasts a total addressable market (TAM) of USD 1.6 billion for TCB by 2028, with a target market share of 35-40% [3]. - The company has received multiple orders for the HBM4 12Hi solution and is leading in the development of the 16Hi solution [3]. - The C2W solution, equipped with plasma AOR technology, has secured several orders from leading advanced logic customers in Q1 2026 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 25% in 2026, followed by 16% in 2027 and 13% in 2028, reaching HKD 172 billion, HKD 199 billion, and HKD 225 billion respectively [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly, with projections of HKD 14 billion, HKD 22 billion, and HKD 32 billion for the same years, corresponding to an EPS of HKD 3.4, HKD 5.3, and HKD 7.7 [4][9].