从金融角度看2026两会政策逻辑：定力和底线思维

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2][17] Core Insights - The current policy emphasizes "credit repair" rather than aggressive fiscal stimulus, focusing on improving the risk-return profile and stabilizing the banking system [3][9] - The fiscal policy is not overly aggressive in total volume but shows a significant increase in "financialization," with tools like 100 billion yuan for fiscal-financial collaboration and 8 trillion yuan in new policy financial instruments being central to the strategy [3][10] - The banking sector's fundamentals will be influenced by policies that affect scale, net interest margins, and risk management [3][10] Summary by Sections Policy Characteristics - The shift from focusing on total volume to credit repair indicates a tighter integration of fiscal and monetary policies [6][9] - The government plans a deficit rate of around 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, with significant issuance of special bonds to support state-owned banks [9][10] Mapping to Banking Fundamentals - Policies aim to boost consumption and employment, enhance investment initiation, and mitigate risks [10][12] - Specific measures include fiscal subsidies and guarantees to lower risks for retail and service sector loans, and policy financial tools to ensure project funding [10][11] Mapping to Banking Investment - The main market characteristic is that price-to-book (PB) recovery precedes return on equity (ROE) recovery, with a focus on maintaining low-risk interest rates [15][16] - Investment recommendations include focusing on state-owned banks for stability and regional banks with strong credit recovery potential [16]