HTSC·2026-03-08 05:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit growth rate of 6.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the 11.5% growth observed in the first three quarters of 2025 [1][2] - The operating profit is anticipated to grow by 8.8% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a robust core profit performance despite short-term investment volatility [3] - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance is expected to maintain resilient growth, with a projected growth rate of approximately 30% for 2025 [4] - The property and casualty insurance underwriting performance is expected to improve, with a decrease in the combined ratio (COR) by 0.7 percentage points to 97% for the full year of 2025 [5] - The target price remains at RMB 76 for A-shares and HKD 75 for H-shares, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation [6] Summary by Sections Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 135.155 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.75% [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 7.69, with a dividend per share (DPS) expected to grow by 6% to RMB 2.70 [3][12] Life Insurance - The NBV for life insurance grew by 46.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with expectations of a slowdown in the fourth quarter to allow for better performance in the new year [4] Property and Casualty Insurance - The combined ratio (COR) for property and casualty insurance decreased to 97.0% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by fewer disasters and cost-cutting measures [5] Valuation - The EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to RMB 7.69, RMB 8.05, and RMB 8.38 respectively, with the target price based on DCF remaining unchanged [6]