中烟香港：盈利表现优秀，主业持续突破发展边界-20260309

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 46.80 [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 14.58 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, and a net profit of HKD 980 million, up 14.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous expectations [1]. - The company's robust revenue growth amidst external disruptions is attributed to improved gross margins in leaf and cigarette exports, indicating a strong operational performance [1]. - As the only listed platform under China Tobacco, the company has a strong competitive moat and is expected to continue its growth trajectory in core business areas, supported by ongoing breakthroughs in leaf and cigarette export operations [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The combined revenue from leaf import and export business reached HKD 12.02 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, accounting for 82.4% of total revenue [2]. - The leaf import business generated HKD 9.54 billion in revenue, up 15.6% year-on-year, driven by an increase in average selling prices despite a slight decline in import volume [2]. - The leaf export business saw revenue of HKD 2.48 billion, a 20.4% increase year-on-year, with both export volume and average price rising, benefiting from enhanced customized services and pricing strategies [2]. Sales Performance - The cigarette export business generated HKD 1.67 billion in revenue, reflecting a 5.9% year-on-year increase, although export volume decreased by 3.3% due to shipping rhythm impacts [3]. - New tobacco product exports faced significant declines, with volumes down 51.2% year-on-year, resulting in a revenue drop of 52.5% [3]. - The company's operations in Brazil reported a revenue of HKD 830 million, down 21.0% year-on-year, primarily due to shipping rhythm and market changes [3]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the company was 10.1% in 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the higher proportion of lower-margin leaf import and export business [4]. - The net profit margin for the company was 6.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, supported by reduced management and financial expense ratios [4]. - The company has announced several important updates indicating ongoing progress in its export business, suggesting continued growth potential [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2026-2028 has been slightly adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of HKD 1.08 billion, HKD 1.20 billion, and HKD 1.32 billion respectively [5]. - The company is assigned a target PE of 30 times for 2026, reflecting its unique market position and long-term growth potential, with a revised target price of HKD 46.80 [5].