蒙牛乳业：卸下包袱后26年有望轻装上阵-20260309

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of HKD 26.93 [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a revenue decline of 7%-8% year-on-year in 2025, with a corresponding decline of 7.1%-9.1% in the second half of 2025. The liquid milk consumption environment is projected to remain subdued, but diversification efforts are ongoing [5][6]. - The operating profit margin for 2025 is anticipated to be in the range of 7.9%-8.1%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline due to revenue drop, despite ongoing cost control measures [7]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.4-1.6 billion in 2025, primarily due to a significant impairment provision of RMB 2.2-2.4 billion [6][7]. - Looking ahead, the company anticipates a recovery in liquid milk demand as the supply-demand balance improves, with positive sales momentum observed during the Spring Festival [6][8]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to RMB 82.01 billion, RMB 83.92 billion, and RMB 85.35 billion, respectively, reflecting a 3% downward revision [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are revised to RMB 0.39, RMB 1.29, and RMB 1.42, respectively, indicating a significant reduction in the 2025 forecast by 64% [8]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19x for 2026, leading to the target price of HKD 26.93, which is an increase from the previous target of HKD 23.74 [8].