Guoxin Securities·2026-03-09 00:35Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, insurance, and brokerage firms, highlighting specific companies such as China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, Ping An Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, Industrial Securities, and East Money [4][3]. Core Insights - The "deposit migration" narrative is expected to influence capital market funding from the second half of 2025, continuing into the first quarter of 2026, driven by the expiration of high-interest fixed deposits and a shift in residents' risk preferences towards higher-yielding assets [1][11]. - Approximately 80-90% of maturing deposits are expected to remain in the banking system, with only about 10-20% potentially flowing into asset management products, which could lead to an increase of 6-13 trillion yuan in asset management products [1][23]. - The report emphasizes a "strong equity, stable debt" asset allocation strategy, indicating that while risk assets will receive incremental funding, overall liquidity in the financial system will remain stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections Deposit Migration - The narrative of "deposit migration" is reshaping asset allocation, with funds moving from low-yield deposits to riskier assets like wealth management, funds, and insurance [11][21]. - The report estimates that 64 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits will mature in 2026, with a significant portion expected to flow into wealth management products [18][21]. Wealth Management and Insurance - Wealth management products are projected to be the primary channel for absorbing outflows from fixed deposits, as they align with the risk preferences of depositors [29][33]. - Insurance, particularly dividend insurance, is positioned to capture a portion of the migrating deposits, offering a blend of security and potential returns [41][50]. Public Funds - The growth of "fixed income plus" and Fund of Funds (FOF) products reflects a shift in investor preferences towards more balanced risk-return profiles in a low-interest environment [51][52]. - Active equity funds have seen limited expansion, with investors showing a preference for stable returns and lower volatility, leading to a structural change in the public fund market [52][53]. Brokerage Firms - Brokerage channels are increasingly focusing on ETF and index-linked products, catering to a client base that prefers low-cost, transparent investment options [54][55]. - The demand for bond ETFs is rising, indicating a shift in institutional client preferences towards efficient fixed-income asset allocation tools [58][59].