股指期货：地缘扰动，波动仍存

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high in the current rebound but followed the decline in the Asia - Pacific market, narrowing losses at the end. The overall market fell slightly. The rise was mainly in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, coal, and public utilities, while media, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors led the decline. The market was mainly driven by the Middle East situation. Initially, the market priced in a temporary easing of the war, but then the situation became more complex, affecting oil transportation and causing a decline in global risk appetite and pressure on the stock index, especially in growth sectors. At the end of the week, the domestic market rebounded with the external market's temporary recovery and the opening of the Two Sessions [1]. - In the later stage, the Middle East situation remains the core driver of the market. The war may turn into a long - drawn - out one, and oil prices may rebound due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, bringing inflation expectations and resource supply uncertainties, which may cause downward pressure on the market. Domestically, the Two Sessions have set the policy direction for the "15th Five - Year Plan" year. Although the focus is on high - quality development, the attention to stabilizing growth will not decrease. If external uncertainties intensify, the government will release signals to stabilize the market. Overall, the current market may continue to be volatile, with a strengthening slow - bull trend, and the market style may shift to large - cap blue - chip stocks due to risk - aversion sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9%. Since 2025, major domestic indices have generally risen. In terms of industry performance in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, there were both gains and losses. The energy and public utility sectors in the CSI 300 index had significant increases, while the information and material sectors had declines. In the CSI 500 index, the public and energy sectors rose, while the telecommunications and raw material sectors fell. Market trading volume and turnover rate also showed certain changes [6][8]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the main contracts of stock index futures, the IM contract had the largest decline, and the IC contract had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both declined. The basis (futures - spot) of the main contracts of stock index futures and the cross - variety ratio also showed certain trends [8][11]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of February 27, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.26 times, the CSI 300 index was 14.16 times, the SSE 50 index was 11.5 times, the CSI 500 index was 39.31 times, and the CSI 1000 index was 52.66 times [12][14]. 3.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The number of new - established equity - focused funds and the margin trading balance in the two markets showed certain trends. The capital interest rate price once rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [15][18]. 4. Strategy Recommendations 4.1 Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [3]. 4.2 Trend Strategy - It is expected that the core operating range of the main IF2603 contract is between 4530 and 4739 points, the IH2603 contract is between 2915 and 3050 points, the IC2603 contract is between 7990 and 8614 points, and the IM2603 contract is between 7924 and 8540 points [3]. 4.3 Variety - based Strategy - During the correction phase, it is recommended to go long on IF (or IH) and short on IC (or IM). During the rebound phase, the opposite strategy is recommended [3]. 5. Factors to be Concerned - The development of the Middle East situation, the release of domestic economic data, the further implementation of the Two Sessions' policies, and the expected direction of the Fed's policies [2]