铅周报：关注再生复产节奏，铅价或维持区间震荡-20260309

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Focus on the Resumption Rhythm of Secondary Lead Production, Lead Prices May Remain Range - Bound [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - In March, both domestic supply and demand of lead have increased. Considering the continuous inflow of imported crude lead and the relatively high domestic social inventory, the Shanghai lead price is under certain pressure. Attention should be paid to the production profit and resumption of work and production rhythm of domestic secondary lead smelting enterprises. If there is a shortage in secondary lead supply, it may push up the Shanghai lead price. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the lead price is expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for unilateral trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Conditions and Logic 3.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - Supply Side: Recently, the processing fee of lead concentrates has not rebounded substantially. It is still difficult to raise the mainstream lead concentrate processing fee in March. The phenomenon of extreme low - price ore grabbing has disappeared. Due to the "reverse invoicing" policy, the cost of lead - containing scrap recyclers has increased. Coupled with the inventory needs of some secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of lead - containing scrap is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - Smelting Side: This week, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces monitored by SMM was 56.97%, a 5.5% increase from last week. In Henan, some large - scale smelters have resumed normal production, and a smelter that had maintenance in February has resumed production in March. In Hunan, some smelters have resumed production, but some only have the recovery of crude lead production. The SMM weekly operating rate of secondary lead smelters in four provinces was 27.12%, a 2.6% decline from last week. Affected by environmental protection requirements during the Two Sessions, raw material supply shortages, and weak downstream demand, the resumption of secondary lead smelters is concentrated at the end of March, and the operating rate is expected to fluctuate little next week [4] - Consumption Side: This week, the SMM weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 71.68%, a 42.41% increase from last week. After the Lantern Festival, the lead - acid battery market has fully recovered. The terminal consumption of electric bicycle and automobile battery markets is average, but dealers' post - holiday replenishment needs have led to good orders for production enterprises, and some large - scale enterprises' production lines are close to full - capacity operation. The increase in the weekly operating rate will slow down in the future [4] - Inventory Data: As of March 5, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 67,200 tons, an increase of nearly 100 tons from February 26 and more than 200 tons from March 2 [4] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, since the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, focus on the cost and resumption rhythm of domestic secondary lead smelting enterprises. The lead price is expected to remain range - bound, and it is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.1.2 - 3.1.5 - These sections list various data related to lead prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided in the given text 3.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - Primary Lead Raw Material Supply: It involves global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, import and export profits, domestic lead concentrate supply, and domestic mine operating rates, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [22][23][26] - Secondary Lead Raw Material Supply: It includes the price of lead - containing scrap, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [34][35][38] 3.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - Global Refined Lead: It includes global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [42][44][46] - Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export: It involves import and export profits, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [49] - Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits: It includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [51] - Primary Lead Supply: It includes the operating rate and production of primary lead smelters and the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [55][56] - Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits: It includes the costs and profits of large - scale and small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [58][62] - Secondary Lead Supply: It includes the operating rate and production of secondary lead smelters and the production of secondary crude lead, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [67][68] - Domestic Lead Ingot Supply: It is composed of domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net exports, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [71][72] 3.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - Lead - Acid Batteries: It includes the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealers' finished inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [78][79] - Lead Alloys and Their Plates: It involves lead alloy prices, lead alloy and lead plate import and export, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [81][82] - Automobiles: It includes Chinese automobile production, export, production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [84][85][87] - Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications: It includes motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering (including power grid and power source projects), but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [89][90][92]