短期股指以区间震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is mainly in range - bound oscillation. Last week, the stock index showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The outbreak of the US - Iran conflict led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks, and the risk appetite of the stock market declined under pressure, causing the stock index to quickly correct. As the impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis is gradually digested by the market, the stock index trend returns to its own fundamentals. With the convening of the Two Sessions, the policy support for aggregate demand and the expectation of supporting technological innovation are relatively clear, and the trend of continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remains unchanged, which constitutes the core logic for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. However, with the implementation of the policy benefits in the government work report of the Two Sessions, the approaching of the listed company earnings report disclosure season, and the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical risks, the stock index will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term [3][9][41] - For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread. Considering that the medium - and long - term upward logic of the stock index still exists, and the weakening of short - term upward momentum increases the difficulty of timing, one can adhere to the bull spread or ratio spread with a moderately bullish idea [4][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, the stock index showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The US - Iran conflict led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks, and the stock index quickly corrected. As the impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis is digested, the stock index returns to its fundamentals. The policy support during the Two Sessions and the continuous net inflow of funds are the core for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. In the short term, due to policy implementation, approaching earnings season, and geopolitical uncertainties, the stock index will oscillate in a range [9] 3.1.2 Futures Basis and Monthly Spread of Stock Index Futures - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties has rebounded, indicating a decline in market optimism. The inter - quarterly spread between the current quarter and the next quarter of stock index futures has also rebounded, suggesting that market optimism has weakened and the uncertainty risk of the far - month contracts has increased [19] 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Index - The report provides multiple figures related to the PCR index of different ETF options and stock index options, including the PCR of 50ETF options, 300ETF options, and stock index options of CSI 1000, etc., but does not provide specific analysis of these data [27] 3.2.2 At - the - money Implied Volatility - The report presents the at - the - money implied volatility of various options, such as 50ETF options, 300ETF options, and stock index options, but no specific analysis of these data is given [34] 3.2.3 At - the - money Implied Volatility Cone - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility cone of different options, including 50ETF options, 300ETF options, and stock index options, but no specific analysis of these data is provided [39] 3.3 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints. Short - term stock index is in range - bound oscillation, and for ETF options and stock index options, a bull spread should be maintained [41][42]