宏观风险主导镍价走势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of nickel is mainly influenced by macro - risks. In the short - term, macro factors dominate, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and be cautious. For nickel trading, it is in a high - level oscillation, and one can buy after the macro sentiment stabilizes. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For stainless steel trading, it also shows high - level oscillation, and one can buy after the macro sentiment stabilizes, while arbitrage should be put on hold for the time being [6][7][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory - Nickel: The global visible inventory of nickel reached 374,000 tons, increasing by 7,573 tons this week. Among them, the domestic social inventory increased by 7,999 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 426 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the supply shortage situation was alleviated [17] - Stainless Steel: The social inventory of stainless steel started to decline, and the inventory of 300 - series and 400 - series was mainly destocked, which was in line with the seasonal characteristics after the Spring Festival resumption of work [10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - Supply: In January 2026, the refined nickel production increased by 26% year - on - year to 37,700 tons, reaching a historical high. In February, it decreased by 5% month - on - month due to the Spring Festival. In March, production is expected to return to normal and continue to reach a new high with the ramping up of new production capacity. In 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 24,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel in 2025 was 452,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45%. It is estimated that the supply in January 2026 increased by 22% year - on - year [26] - Demand: The cumulative consumption of pure nickel in 2025 increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. In January 2026, it decreased by 2% year - on - year. Electroplating consumption decreased seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and the overall consumption slowed down [30] 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - Raw Materials - Indonesian Nickel Ore: The quota of Indonesian nickel ore is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. In January 2026, Indonesia imported about 220,000 tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, a 63% month - on - month decrease and a 94.77% year - on - year increase. In March 2026, the first - round domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased by 0.1 to $30.24 per wet ton, but the premium is expected to rise [32] - NPI: NPI prices increased following the rise of nickel ore prices. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is on the rise, and the import volume of nickel iron in China is also relatively large [33][35][36] - Chromium - based Materials: Chromium ore prices rebounded due to the 10% tax on chromium - based product exports in Zimbabwe starting from January 1, 2026. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon chromium iron by Tsingshan Group in March 2026 was flat month - on - month [44] - Profit: The immediate profit of steel mills is in a loss state. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is about 14,850 yuan per ton, and the integrated cost reaches 14,350 yuan per ton [46] - Supply: It is estimated by Steel Union that the production of stainless steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 4.506 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. In February, production decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival maintenance. In 2025, China's total stainless steel imports were 1.519 million tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease, and the total exports were 5.031 million tons, remaining flat year - on - year. The net export volume was 3.512 million tons, an 11% year - on - year increase [57] - Demand: Shipbuilding is still in a boom cycle, providing support for stainless steel demand. However, the growth rate of other terminal fields is not optimistic, especially the real - estate transaction volume decreased significantly year - on - year [59] 3.2.3 New Energy Vehicles - Domestic Market: In January 2026, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 945,000 respectively, with year - on - year increases of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. The production of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 938,000, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease, and the retail penetration rate was 38.6%. The cumulative production of power cells from January to February increased by 33% year - on - year, and it is expected to reach the January level in March [65] - Global Market: In 2025, the cumulative global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. In Europe, the cumulative sales in 2025 increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, and in January 2026, it increased by 22% year - on - year. In the United States, the cumulative sales in 2025 decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million, and in January 2026, it decreased by 25% year - on - year. China's new - energy vehicle exports in 2025 increased by 103% year - on - year to 2.583 million, and in January 2026, it increased by 101% year - on - year [72] - Nickel Sulfate: In 2025, the production of nickel sulfate decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. In 2026, government subsidies are inclined to mid - and high - end new - energy vehicles, which is beneficial to ternary materials and their raw materials. The future ternary market needs high - nickel materials to break through the energy - density bottleneck [74] - Intermediate Products: The production of MHP and high - ice nickel is expected to increase. The new MHP production capacity in 2026 will exceed 400,000 tons, while the new high - ice nickel production capacity is only 83,000 tons. It is estimated that the two together can cover the increase in refined nickel and nickel sulfate, about 140,000 - 150,000 nickel tons [77] 3.3 March Supply - Demand Outlook - In mid - to late March, the supply - demand situation may improve marginally. If inventory destocking can be observed in the second half of March, the downward support for nickel and stainless steel prices will be stronger [7][10]