纯碱：市场仍缺乏大幅上行基础

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures price continued to rebound and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis, but the market showed a typical "futures-spot divergence" feature. The "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" core contradiction was not alleviated, and the market lacked a solid foundation for continuous upward movement [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 5, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 807,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,000 tons or 2.03%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.77%, a week-on-week increase of 1.73% [7][10]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9472 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 17,700 tons or 0.92%, and a year-on-year increase of 187,300 tons or 10.64% [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 5, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 738,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 53.26%; the overall shipment rate was 93.32%, a week-on-week increase of 32.20 percentage points [17]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of March 5, 2026, the theoretical profit (double tons) of China's combined soda process was -2.50 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 66.67%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was -82.65 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 7.50 yuan/ton [20][24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 5, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 148,500 tons, unchanged from February 26. The weekly output from February 27 to March 5 was 1.0397 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.24% [27]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 5, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 79.637 million weight boxes, a week-on-week increase of 3.629 million weight boxes or 4.77%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.51%. The inventory days were 35.3 days, an increase of 1.5 days from the previous period [31]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The supply - side pressure of soda ash further intensified. The demand side had a certain recovery, but the overall shipment rate was still less than 94%. The manufacturer's total inventory continued to accumulate, reaching over 1.94 million tons. The combined soda process profit narrowed, and the ammonia - soda process profit was still in a loss state [38]. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to short on rebounds. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [39].