甲醇周报：地缘提振依旧，甲醇大概率延续偏强运行-20260309

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, affected by the geopolitical tension caused by the US and Israel's raid on Iran, methanol futures rose significantly. As of Friday afternoon's close, the methanol weighted price closed at 2,558 yuan/ton, a 16.86% increase from the previous week. The main factor boosting methanol currently is the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, and the focus of the conflict is the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the navigation problem in the Strait of Hormuz is not substantially resolved, crude oil and methanol will continue to be boosted. Methanol is likely to continue to run strongly in the short - term, and long - position operations on methanol futures and buying methanol call options can be considered [5][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to geopolitical tension, methanol futures rose significantly. The weighted methanol price closed at 2,558 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 16.86% from the previous week. In the spot market, after the Spring Festival, downstream demand and trucking pick - up gradually recovered, and the import apparent demand increased. Port methanol inventory remained high. Port methanol prices fluctuated greatly due to international instability. In the mainland, affected by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, port prices rose and spread to the mainland, with strong market sentiment, but then cooled quickly. The price range in the main production area of Ordos North Line was 1,815 - 1,988 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price range was 2,115 - 2,285 yuan/ton [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,047,465 tons, a decrease of 23,980 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 91.65%, a 1.15% decrease from the previous week [15] - Downstream Demand: As of March 5, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: The MTO device in Jiangsu and Zhejiang had a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 38.95%, unchanged from the previous week; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 2.85%; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate was stable; the methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 80.94%, a decrease; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 28.72%, an increase [17][19] - Inventory: As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 552,400 tons, a 3.19% increase from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 295,200 tons, a 104.91% increase from the previous period. The port sample inventory was 1,443,500 tons, a 0.22% decrease from the previous period. The overall performance was inventory accumulation in East China and inventory reduction in South China [20][25] - Profit: Last week, due to the sharp rise in commodity prices caused by the sudden escalation of the geopolitical conflict, and the raw material price increase was weaker than that of methanol, the profitability of various production processes improved significantly. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia was - 185.10 yuan/ton, a 20.96% increase; in Shandong, it was - 106.10 yuan/ton, a 26.42% increase; in Shanxi, it was - 168.30 yuan/ton, a 25.07% increase; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 199.00 yuan/ton, a 101.01% increase; the weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the Southwest was - 248.00 yuan/ton, a 14.48% increase [27][28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: Next week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to resume production than to be shut down for maintenance. It is estimated that China's methanol production will be about 2.0485 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.69%, with an increase in production [29] - Downstream Demand: In the short - term, there are no plans to change the MTO devices of domestic enterprises, and the industry's operating rate is expected to remain stable. The dimethyl ether, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and chloride industries are expected to increase their capacity utilization rates. It is expected that the inventory of inland factories will decrease, and the prices will remain relatively firm. Attention should be paid to the transportation capacity [30][32][33] - Port Inventory: This week, the arrival of foreign ships at ports will decrease, but there may be some inland supplies. Demand may continue to recover. Overall, the port methanol inventory is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the unloading speed and pick - up volume [33]