地缘冲突爆发，金银先扬后抑

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market experienced a rapid shift from "safe-haven" to liquidity drag last week, with the trading focus shifting from pure geopolitical conflict speculation to pricing of "economic recession" and "inflation stickiness." Geopolitical factors, economic data, and central bank policies have all influenced the prices of gold and silver, leading to a high-level oscillation pattern for both metals [4]. - The U.S. economy shows signs of deceleration, with GDP growth slowing, the job market cooling unexpectedly, and inflation remaining moderately stable. The Federal Reserve has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and initiated a technical expansion, marking a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral observation" [24][32][39]. - In the gold market, global supply increased slightly in 2025, while demand reached a record high, driven by investment and central bank purchases. The silver market has a relatively stable supply, and demand is mainly affected by industrial use, especially in the photovoltaic sector. The supply-demand gap has been narrowing, and inventory has started to rebound [43][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - Market Analysis: The precious metals market was affected by geopolitical conflicts, economic data, and central bank policies. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell, with London gold closing down 2% for the week at $5,172 per ounce, and London silver closing down 9.9% at $84.5 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures also declined [4]. - Strategy Recommendations: Conservative investors are advised to wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear, while aggressive investors can cautiously try to go long at low prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - U.S. Economic Growth: The U.S. GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, mainly due to the government shutdown. Consumer spending growth also slowed, and investment performance was mixed. Retail sales in January were lower than expected, affected by cold weather and falling oil prices [24][25][26]. - Employment Market: The U.S. job market cooled unexpectedly in February, with non-farm payrolls decreasing by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The decline in private - sector employment and manufacturing jobs was significant, especially in the healthcare industry [32]. - Inflation: U.S. inflation was generally moderate in January, with the CPI rising 2.4% year - on - year. Energy prices and some commodity prices contributed to the decline in inflation, but core inflation remained sticky. However, the energy price surge caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict may change the inflation outlook [36]. - Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve stopped shrinking its balance sheet and initiated a technical expansion, indicating a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral observation" [39]. Chapter 3: Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - Gold Supply and Demand: In 2025, global gold supply increased by 0.6% to 5,002 tons, and demand increased by 7.8% to 4,999.4 tons, reaching a record high. Investment demand and central bank purchases were the main drivers of demand growth, while jewelry demand declined [43]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: Since 2022, global central banks have been actively buying gold. In 2025, central bank gold purchases reached 863 tons. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been actively involved in gold purchases for various reasons [53]. - Silver Supply and Demand: The global silver supply increased by 2% in 2024 and is expected to continue growing in 2025. Demand is mainly from industrial use, especially in the photovoltaic sector. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing, and inventory has started to rebound [55]. - Silver Inventory: LBMA inventory decreased significantly in 2022 - 2024, and in 2025, the inventory situation in different regions changed due to market factors. The overall supply shortage situation has not been reversed [62]. - Silver ETF Demand: The total global silver ETF holdings are generally at a high level, but have declined recently with the price correction. The overseas silver leasing rate has fluctuated, and the domestic silver supply - demand situation remains tight [64][65].