锌：供应存有减量预期，警惕资金面对锌价影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of zinc mines is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the impact of capital on zinc prices [1] - The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase significantly in March, and the downstream enterprises are expected to resume work after the Lantern Festival, with the operating rate steadily increasing [5] - The geopolitical situation may affect the import of zinc elements from the Middle East, and the increase in overseas natural gas prices may lead to production cuts by European smelters [5] - The trading strategies include going long on dips and buying out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Logic - Supply Side - In March, northern mines are still in seasonal shutdown, but mines that stopped production during the Spring Festival are resuming production, bringing some incremental supply. The continuous inflow of imported mines supplements the supply, but the shortage pattern of zinc concentrate remains, and the processing fee is expected to remain low [5] - In March, domestic smelters that had holidays or maintenance are resuming production and increasing output. Some high - cost smelters are currently slightly in the red, and the impact of smelter profitability on the operating rate needs to be monitored. The domestic refined zinc production in March is expected to increase significantly month - on - month [5] - Demand Side - After the Spring Festival, there are significant differences in terminal consumption. Some enterprises have unfinished orders and are actively resuming production, while others have no new orders and have postponed the resumption of work until after the Lantern Festival [5] - Inventory - As of March 5, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 256,300 tons, an increase of 36,400 tons compared to February 26 and 1,700 tons compared to March 2 [5] 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: Go long on dips [5] - Options Strategy: Buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [5] 3.2 Market Data - Spot Premium: Information about the basis in major consumption areas and LME cash - 3M [7] - Absolute Price and Monthly Spread: Information about the absolute price and monthly spread of Shanghai zinc, as well as trading volume and open interest [13] - Inventory: Information about social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, and warrants [16][17] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Production - In 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 12.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 652,400 tons or 5.47%. Overseas production was 8.504 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 540,400 tons or 6.79%, and China's production was 4.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 112,000 tons or 2.83% [29] - In February, China's zinc concentrate production was 224,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46%. It is expected to reach 284,900 tons in March, a month - on - month increase of 27.02% [29] - Import - In December 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 462,500 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% (56,400 physical tons) compared to November and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 5.3305 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.1% [31] - In December 2025, the top three import source countries were Peru (72,700 physical tons, accounting for 15.7%), Australia (66,300 physical tons, accounting for 14.3%), and South Africa (58,700 physical tons, accounting for 12.7%) [31] - Raw Material Inventory - As of February, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters increased by 1.2 days month - on - month to 24.9 days [29][41] - The inventory of zinc concentrate in major domestic ports decreased by 31,000 tons to 349,000 tons [29] - Processing Fee - In March, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/ton. On March 6, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 1,550 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 8.37 US dollars/dry ton month - on - month to 15.38 US dollars/dry ton [45] 3.3.2 Global Refined Zinc Production - In 2025, the global refined zinc production was 13.8225 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 221,800 tons or 1.63%, and the consumption was 13.808 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 182,300 tons or 1.34%. The cumulative surplus was 14,500 tons [49] - In 2025, China's refined zinc production was 6.9996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.06% or 399,700 tons, and overseas production was 6.8228 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.54% or 177,900 tons [49] 3.3.3 Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - Operating Rate - In February, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 73.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.25%. Among them, the operating rate of large - scale enterprises was 80.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41%; that of medium - scale enterprises was 78.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44%; and that of small - scale enterprises was 43.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 20.98% [52] - Production - In February, the SMM China refined zinc production decreased by 9.99% month - on - month to 504,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.91%. It is expected to reach 579,900 tons in March, a month - on - month increase of 14.92% and a year - on - year increase of 6.03% [53] - Import and Export - In December 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 8,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons or 51.94%, and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 304,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.78% [62] - In December 2025, the refined zinc export volume was 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The top three import countries were Kazakhstan (6,300 tons, 72.26%), Iran (1,400 tons, 15.96%), and Australia (700 tons, 8.17%). The top three export destinations were Chinese Taipei (13,500 tons, 49.37%), Singapore (3,500 tons, 12.87%), and Hong Kong, China (3,000 tons, 10.97%) [62] 3.3.4 Downstream Consumption - Primary Processing Operating Rate - Information about the comprehensive operating rate of downstream enterprises, galvanizing, die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide operating rates [64] - Inventory of Primary Processing Enterprises - Information about the raw material and finished product inventories of galvanizing, zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises [66] - End - Use Industries - Real Estate: Information about real estate development investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, and unsold area, as well as the land transaction premium rate in 100 cities and the daily sales of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities [71][74] - Infrastructure: Information about the investment trends of major infrastructure sectors, including power, transportation, and water conservancy [82] - Automobile: Information about the production of traditional fuel vehicles, new - energy vehicles, and the export of Chinese automobiles [91] - White Goods: Information about the monthly production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [95]