多重因素共振，高波动或持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the wave of de - leveraging trading of risk funds triggered by macro shocks gradually subsided, precious metal prices stabilized and rebounded in February. The Middle East shock leading to soaring oil prices may raise inflation pressure again, and the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy outlook increases. The adjustment of precious metals is not over, and the market will maintain high volatility through high - level oscillations. Gold price is expected to be stronger than silver price, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to be upwardly revised [4][50]. - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuate between macro pressure and supply crisis, and it is difficult to have an independent market in the short term. If the US imposes high tariffs on Russian palladium and the EU bans imports of Russian platinum - group metals and copper, the platinum - palladium market pattern will be reshaped. In the medium - to - long term, the price increase of platinum and palladium is optimistic, and investors can go long after the adjustment [4][50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Precious Metal Market Review - In January, precious metal prices plummeted due to the hawkish expectations triggered by Trump's nomination of Wash as the Fed chairman candidate. In February, prices were in shock consolidation and recovered part of the decline. Driven by factors such as the escalation of the US - Iran situation, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and weak US economic data, precious metal prices rebounded. The monthly increase of COMEX gold futures main contract was 7.92%, and that of COMEX silver futures main contract was 10.72%. The supply - side risk events of platinum and palladium supported their prices, with the monthly increase of NYMEX platinum futures main contract at 9.09% and that of palladium futures main contract at 5.51% [9]. - On February 28, the US and Israel attacked Iran, and on March 1, Iran reported that the Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed. The escalation of the Middle - East conflict had a huge impact on oil prices but limited impact on precious metal prices. The conflict continues, and the development of the Middle - East situation needs to be continuously monitored [10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Intensified Middle - East Geopolitical Conflicts and US Tariff Disturbances - On February 28, the US and Israel attacked Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran launched large - scale military retaliation and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has lasted for more than a week and shows an escalating trend, which may lead to an increase in global inflation pressure. The US - Iran conflict has a long - term and complex nature, and the negotiation in Geneva in February 2026 was the fuse [15][16]. - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's large - scale tariffs were illegal, and then Trump announced a new round of 10% global tariffs for 150 days, threatening to raise the rate to 15%. This tariff policy has caused concerns about the escalation of the trade war and the process of de - dollarization [16]. 3.2.2 US Economic Slowdown, Persistent Inflation Pressure, Disappointing Employment, and Increased Uncertainty of Fed Policy - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the initial value of the US real GDP slowed to 1.4%, far lower than the expected 2.8%, and was the slowest growth rate since the tariff shock in the first quarter of 2025. The slowdown was mainly due to the decline in government spending, exports, and the slowdown of consumer spending growth. The government shutdown in the fourth quarter dragged down the GDP by about 1 percentage point [17]. - In December 2025, the US core PCE index increased by 3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, reaching the largest increase in nearly a year. The recent escalation of the US - Iran conflict has added variables to inflation. The February 2026 non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, with a decrease of 92,000 non - farm employment people, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. After excluding disturbances, the US labor market continued the mid - term trend of mild cooling [18]. - Due to the marginal weakening of the labor market and the rising geopolitical risks, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy has increased. The Fed is unlikely to relax monetary policy in advance before confirming the downward trend of inflation. It is expected that there will be no interest - rate cuts during Powell's tenure, and there may be 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts of 25BP in the second half of the year when Wash becomes the Fed chairman [19]. 3.3 Precious Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Gold and Silver Market Analysis - The gold - silver ratio on COMEX quickly repaired. It reached a low of 46 at the end of January, fluctuated greatly in February, and is expected to continue to rise [23]. - The global gold - buying rhythm is differentiated. In 2025, global official institutions increased their gold holdings by 863 tons. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves, while the central banks of Poland and Russia have plans or actions to sell gold reserves. In the context of de - globalization, central banks' demand for gold is expected to continue to increase [26][27]. - The holdings of gold and silver ETFs decreased. As of March 6, the gold holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 16 tons compared with the high at the end of January, and the silver holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - SPDR decreased by 608 tons compared with a month ago [29]. - The risk of silver delivery squeeze has been weakened. Although the silver inventory in New York and Shanghai is still decreasing, forward - looking indicators do not show a signal of intensifying contradictions. The delivery pressure is not expected to intensify in March, but there is a possibility of an increase in May. Domestic exchanges have adjusted the position and delivery rules of silver futures to suppress the risk of squeeze [33][34]. 3.3.2 Platinum and Palladium Market Analysis - The price ratios of platinum and palladium to gold and silver are still at low levels. Platinum and palladium prices rebounded in February, with platinum performing better than palladium. The price ratios of platinum and palladium to gold and silver are in the historical low - level range, and their potential for price increase is optimistic [39]. - The US platinum and palladium inventories have decreased but are still at a high level. The inventories of NYMEX platinum and palladium increased significantly in 2025 and continued to increase in January 2026, with a slight decrease in February. The spot lease rates of platinum and palladium are still at a relatively high level, indicating a tight spot market [43]. - The US plans to impose high tariffs on Russian palladium, and if implemented, it will reshape the market pattern. The US plans to impose an anti - dumping tax of nearly 133% on Russian palladium, and the EU is considering an import ban on Russian platinum - group metals and copper. These measures will impact the global platinum - palladium supply chain and market pattern [47][49]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - The adjustment of precious metals is not over, and the market will maintain high volatility through high - level oscillations. Gold price is expected to be stronger than silver price, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to be upwardly revised [50]. - Platinum and palladium prices are fluctuating between macro pressure and supply crisis, and it is difficult to have an independent market in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the price increase of platinum and palladium is optimistic, and investors can go long after the adjustment [50].