跟随板块调整，铂钯大幅回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down, the US dollar index was strong, precious metals adjusted weakly, and platinum and palladium suffered a significant pullback. The soaring energy prices and the rise of crude oil prices above $90 per barrel had a siphon effect on speculative funds, significantly amplifying the price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. However, there are still uncontrollable geopolitical risks, and positive factors remain. [8][9] - Fundamentally, the global platinum market has been in short supply for two consecutive years. The shrinking supply, rising industrial demand, and relatively low prices have stabilized the demand for jewelry and investment, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected that the supply - demand gap of platinum will still exist in the next few years, so the long - term fundamentals of platinum are optimistic. [9] - For palladium, automobile demand dominates. Due to the sharp increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, the incremental demand for palladium is suppressed, and it is difficult to see improvement in the short term. Therefore, the fundamental support for palladium is limited, and its trend is affected by the linkage with platinum and the macro - environment. Overall, without significant changes in fundamentals, it may move in sync with the trend of precious metals. [9] - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term, and short - term fluctuations are large. For options, a double - buying strategy is suggested for reference. [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - Platinum and Palladium Trends: Last Friday, the main platinum and palladium contracts fell under pressure. The main platinum contract closed down 1.2% at 560.5, and the main palladium contract closed down 1.79% at 421.5. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down last week, the US dollar index was strong, precious metals adjusted weakly, and platinum and palladium fell under pressure. The spot platinum in the outer market closed at 2164.1 early on Saturday, and the spot palladium closed at 1622.6. The weekly declines of domestic platinum and palladium were 10.14% and 9.33% respectively. [8] - Macroeconomic Situation: The US manufacturing PMI in February was 52.4, higher than the expected 51.8 and the previous value of 52.6, with the manufacturing PMI remaining in an expansionary range for the second consecutive month. In terms of employment, the US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, significantly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%. The weak US employment data still keeps the market's hope for the Fed's interest rate cut. However, the rise in crude oil prices further intensifies inflation concerns, and the market continues to postpone the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed will hold a meeting on March 18, and the market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the first interest rate cut is expected to be in July. [8] - News: On February 28, the US and Israel launched a large - scale air strike on Iran, killing Iran's supreme leader and many senior military and political officials. Iran then counterattacked the US military bases in the Gulf and Israel, and some Middle Eastern countries were affected. The traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz plummeted, and the Iranian Self - Defense Forces reiterated the closure of the strait and claimed "full control." Energy prices soared, and the crude oil price rose above $90 per barrel, having a siphon effect on speculative funds and significantly amplifying the price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. [8] - Fundamentals: In 2026, the supply and demand of platinum and palladium are expected to show obvious differentiation. Platinum supply is continuously restricted, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global production. Its demand structure is diversified, with automobile exhaust catalysts accounting for only about 40%, and the rest coming from investment, jewelry, and industrial fields. Against the background of rising platinum prices, investment demand has increased significantly, and emerging fields such as the hydrogen energy industry and commercial aerospace have opened up long - term growth space. It is expected that the supply - demand gap of platinum will continue in 2026 and may further widen. Palladium's terminal demand is highly dependent on automobile exhaust catalysts, accounting for over 80%. Suppressed by the accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles and the substitution trend of platinum, the growth of palladium demand lacks imagination. Although there is still a supply gap in the short term, it is expected that the gap will narrow significantly in 2026, and the fundamental support is relatively limited. [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts are provided, including the futures and spot price trends of platinum and palladium in NYMEX, London, Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange, showing the price trends of platinum and palladium in different markets. [13][17][21][25] 3. US Economy - Multiple charts are provided, including the trends of US GDP, PMI, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate, reflecting the overall economic situation of the United States. [31][32] 4. Inflation - Charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE are provided, showing the inflation situation in the United States. [38] 5. Interest Rates - Charts of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates are provided, reflecting the interest rate situation in the United States. [47][48] 6. Fundamentals - Platinum: The global platinum supply - demand balance sheet from 2013 to 2026f is provided, showing the supply and demand situation of platinum in different regions and application fields, and it is expected that the supply - demand gap will continue in 2026. [53] - Palladium: The global palladium supply - demand balance sheet from 2009 to 2025 is provided, showing the supply and demand situation of palladium in different regions and application fields, and it is expected that the supply - demand gap will narrow significantly in 2026. [54] 7. Futures Positioning - Charts of the futures position of platinum and palladium in the outer market are provided, including non - commercial net long positions and total positions, reflecting the market's trading sentiment towards platinum and palladium. [55] 8. Passenger Car Sales - Charts of China's passenger car market retail and wholesale data are provided, showing the sales situation of the passenger car market. [62] 9. US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - Charts of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, euro - US dollar exchange rate, US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate, British pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Canadian dollar exchange rate are provided, reflecting the exchange rate situation. [68][71][74][76] 10. Platinum and Palladium Price Differences between Domestic and Foreign Markets - Charts of the spot price trends and price differences of platinum between domestic and foreign markets are provided, showing the price differences of platinum in different markets. [85] 11. Platinum - Palladium Ratio - A chart of the platinum - palladium ratio is provided, showing the price ratio relationship between platinum and palladium. [94]