铝产业链月报：地缘冲突升级主导供应风险溢价持续走强-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of external sources on the domestic market is weakening. Downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for high - price inventory is low, with procurement mainly for replenishing rigid - demand stocks. Overall, supply and demand are contracting simultaneously, and cost support is falling from a high level. - In the alumina market, short - term supply - side pressure has been marginally relieved, and the supply - demand relationship has reached a short - term balance, supporting short - term price stability. In the medium to long term, ore supply is abundant, cost support is weakening, and new production capacity plans from March to June will put pressure on prices [3][29][81]. - The core trading logic of electrolytic aluminum prices revolves around the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The Middle East's aluminum industry is facing challenges, and if the situation worsens, more aluminum plants may cut production. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of significant price corrections [3][82]. - In the cast aluminum market, the supply of compliant scrap aluminum is tight, and cost support is increasing. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain strong under the influence of Middle East conflicts, with significant intraday volatility [4][70][83]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Alumina futures prices fluctuated in February, with the center of gravity slightly rising. The main contract price stabilized around 2,800 yuan/ton, with a high of 2,937 yuan/ton and a monthly decline of 0.87% [11]. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices dropped rapidly at the beginning of February and then oscillated in a narrow range. The overseas LME aluminum price also adjusted, and the import loss slightly increased [12]. - Cast aluminum futures briefly exceeded 24,000 yuan/ton in February but then fell. The price mostly oscillated above 22,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.68% [13]. 3.2 Macro Environment 3.2.1 Overseas - The situation in the Middle East has escalated, with the US conducting military operations in Iran and Iran counter - attacking and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This has an impact on global inflation and resource products [16]. - The US has adjusted its tariff policies. The Federal Supreme Court made a decision on Trump's tariffs, and Trump re - introduced tariffs, which are expected to prevent a sharp short - term decline in US tariffs [16]. - In terms of employment and inflation, US employment data in January was better than expected, and inflation was lower than expected. However, due to the Middle East conflict, inflation expectations have risen, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has weakened [18]. - In the fourth quarter of the US, GDP growth was lower than expected, with a decline in personal consumption expenditure contribution and a negative contribution from government spending [19]. - In Europe, the eurozone's industrial production slowed down, construction output rebounded, and PMI improved across the board. Exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic - After the Spring Festival, some industrial product production and prices recovered. The real estate market showed signs of recovery, and foreign trade port throughput and South Korea's export data were strong [21]. - In January, CPI and PPI data were affected by the Spring Festival and base - period rotation. Financial data had a good start, with an increase in social financing scale mainly driven by government bonds [21][22]. 3.3 Alumina Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bauxite - In January, the supply of domestic bauxite was tight, with prices rising slightly in the north and remaining stable in the south. Imported ore supply is expected to increase, but geopolitical issues may affect transportation costs [24][25]. 3.3.2 Alumina Supply - In January, China's alumina production was flat year - on - year, and the supply surplus pattern remained. In February, production cuts were carried out, and imports decreased [25][26]. 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - Exchange inventory increased from 182,000 tons at the beginning of February to 310,000 tons at the end of the month. The spot premium narrowed to a small premium of 21 yuan/ton in mid - February [27]. 3.3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - In January, the average fully - taxed cost of the alumina industry decreased by 89.24 yuan/ton compared with December, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.16% [28]. 3.3.5 Alumina Outlook - Short - term supply - side pressure has been relieved, and prices are expected to stabilize. In the medium to long term, new production capacity will put pressure on prices [29][81]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In January, China's primary aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February, production is expected to be about 3.44 million tons. Overseas, there are many production cut news, and the reduction is expected to be greater than the increase in March [42][43]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - As of March 5, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased compared with before the Spring Festival. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME also changed [44]. 3.4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - The LME spot premium changed from a large discount to a small premium, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [45]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In February, the theoretical average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry decreased by 88 yuan/ton compared with the previous month, and the monthly theoretical profit increased by 605 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Cast Aluminum 3.5.1 Scrap Aluminum - In February, scrap aluminum imports were affected by policies and the Spring Festival. Domestic scrap aluminum production decreased month - on - month, and prices fluctuated after the Spring Festival [65]. 3.5.2 Supply - In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. After the Lantern Festival, production gradually recovered, and imports were limited [66]. 3.5.3 Consumption - In January, automobile and motorcycle sales increased year - on - year [67]. 3.5.4 Spot and Inventory - As of March 5, the spot price of ADC12 increased, and the cast aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased [68][69]. 3.5.5 Outlook - The cost of cast aluminum is rising, the supply and demand are weak, and prices are expected to remain strong with significant volatility [70][83]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis 3.6.1 Aluminum Processing - In February, aluminum processing was affected by the Spring Festival. In March, with the arrival of the peak season, the industry is expected to recover [75]. 3.6.2 Domestic Terminal Consumption - The real estate market is expected to be stable. Automobile sales were under pressure in January, and the market may adjust in February. The power demand is recovering, and the short - term demand for photovoltaic products is strong [76][77]. 3.6.3 Aluminum Product Exports - Exports are expected to face few obstacles, but the appreciation of the RMB and the Spring Festival may affect exports, and the year - on - year exports from January to February are expected to remain stable [78]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the Middle East conflict has increased inflation risks, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have decreased. Domestically, attention should be paid to the policies of the Two Sessions [81]. - Alumina prices are expected to be stable in the short term and under pressure in the medium to long term [81]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term but may correct if the geopolitical situation eases [82]. - Cast aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with significant volatility [83].