通胀担忧、成本支撑，锌价宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical instability intensifies inflation and risk - aversion concerns, and the expectation of tightened overseas liquidity exerts pressure on zinc prices. However, geopolitical risks also disrupt the supply side, significantly strengthening cost support. The resumption of production at domestic smelters is accelerating, and demand is entering the verification period of the peak - season performance. The market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Currently, the macro - situation is dominant, and the weight of fundamentals is relatively low. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate widely in March, and macro - uncertainties will intensify the volatility [4][78][79] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In February, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fell from a high and then fluctuated and adjusted. After the Spring Festival, it followed an upward trend but was restricted by the slow return of consumption. As of February 27, the main contract price closed at 24,710 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 4.35%. LME zinc fluctuated at a high level, supported by low inventory and supply - side disturbances. As of February 27, it closed at 3,308 US dollars/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.84% [9][10] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 United States - The US economy maintains steady growth. In Q4 2025, GDP growth was lower than expected due to government shutdowns, but consumption and investment remained resilient. Manufacturing and service PMIs showed a slight decline. Inflation slightly decreased but remained sticky. The employment market was hit hard in February. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting was generally hawkish, and the future interest - rate path became more complex due to the US - Iran conflict. The market expects the next interest - rate cut to be postponed to September, with only a 25 - basis - point cut this year [11][13][14] 3.2.2 Eurozone - The Eurozone economy is in a mild recovery, with the manufacturing sector returning to the expansion range. The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. Inflation is still above the target, and the ECB is expected to be cautious about interest - rate cuts [15] 3.2.3 China - China's January credit data was not satisfactory, and the February PMI showed that the economy still faced downward pressure. The 2026 Government Work Report set the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a continued focus on expanding domestic demand and maintaining a moderately loose monetary environment, which is expected to promote economic recovery [16][17] 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - In 2026, the expected increase in overseas zinc ore production has been revised down, and the global zinc concentrate supply growth rate has been adjusted to 3.31%. Some overseas mining companies have lowered their annual production guidance. The US - Iran conflict has increased the risk of supply and transportation disruptions. Domestic zinc ore production is expected to increase in the second quarter. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is weakly stable, and the zinc ore import volume remains high [29][31][38] 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - Overseas mining companies' refined zinc production guidance in 2026 shows mixed trends. The US - Iran conflict has threatened European natural gas supply, raising the production cost of overseas smelters. In January and February, the supply of refined zinc decreased significantly, and both import and export windows were closed. It is expected that the production of refined zinc will increase in March [46][51][52] 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - In February, the start - up rate of downstream primary enterprises decreased seasonally, and the export of primary products was strong. Traditional consumption was weak, while emerging consumption showed differentiation. Infrastructure investment is expected to recover, the real - estate market is still at the bottom, the growth rate of the automotive and home - appliance industries has slowed down, and the photovoltaic industry's contribution to zinc consumption is expected to decline, while the wind - power industry is expected to maintain a high growth rate [58][61][66] 3.3.4 Inventory - In February, LME inventory decreased slightly, and domestic social inventory increased seasonally. In March, with the full resumption of production by downstream enterprises, the domestic inventory is expected to reach an inflection point [72]