铁矿石月报：需求支撑库存压制，铁矿石震荡反弹-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore demand is continuously recovering. After the Spring Festival, steel mills are resuming production steadily, with the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills rising to 80.22%. There is still room for growth in molten iron production after the end of northern production restrictions. However, limited by a profitability rate of only 39.83% and more than half of the enterprises incurring losses, the room for steel mills to increase their operating rates is limited. Overseas, India's demand has increased significantly, and demand in Japan, South Korea, and Europe has improved, but the US tariff policy and intensified geopolitical conflicts have brought uncertainties to global demand [3][53]. - The overall supply is becoming looser. As the impact of weather in Australia and Brazil weakens, the shipments of Rio Tinto, Vale, etc. are steadily recovering. Coupled with the incremental release of new projects such as Simandou, the global iron ore supply is loosening. Domestic mines are resuming production after the Spring Festival, and the output continues to increase month - on - month. Port inventories remain at a high level, reaching 171 million tons at 45 ports, and the supply pressure persists [3][53]. - In the next month, molten iron is in an upward cycle, which supports the iron ore price. In terms of supply, overseas shipments are steadily recovering, domestic mines are advancing in resuming production, and port inventories remain at a high level, so the supply pressure persists. In terms of demand, steel mills are resuming production steadily, and molten iron production is rising; macroscopically, the Two Sessions have released positive signals, while overseas risks add uncertainties. It is expected that the iron ore price will rebound in a volatile manner, ranging from 700 to 850 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policies and production restrictions [3][53]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In February, the iron ore market fluctuated downward and was generally weak. Affected by poor macro - sentiment and a continuous weakening of fundamentals, the ore price quickly declined from the high at the beginning of the month and reached the monthly low of 736 yuan/ton on February 24, with a decline of 10% in this round. After the Spring Festival, Shanghai introduced real - estate policy adjustments, and with the support of expectations for the Two Sessions, demand recovered steadily, and market sentiment briefly improved. In early March, the futures price fluctuated and stabilized. The spot market also weakened synchronously, port prices generally declined, and the price differences between lumps and fines, as well as between high - and medium - grade ores, widened. The demand was affected by the Spring Festival off - season, terminal steel consumption had not substantially recovered, and although steel mills were resuming production one after another, the recovery of molten iron production was a bit slow, and port inventories continued to accumulate at a high level [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Molten Iron Enters an Upward Cycle after the Spring Festival - In February, blast furnace production was generally stable with a slight increase, showing a pattern of pre - festival maintenance and post - festival resumption of production. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills rose to 80.22% at the end of February, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.93 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate reached 87.45%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.87 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production rose to 2.3328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 53,400 tons. The steel mills' profit performance was poor, with a profitability rate of 39.83%, a slight month - on - month increase but a year - on - year decrease of 10.39 percentage points, and more than half of the enterprises were in the red. Looking forward to March, 17 blast furnaces (with a capacity of 74,500 tons per day) are planned to resume production, and only 2 are for maintenance. However, high inventories and weak demand still restrict the production intensity, and the resumption of production rhythm of steel mills is limited [9]. - Overseas, the US Supreme Court ruled that the tariff measures implemented by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal. Trump then launched a 301 investigation and signed an executive order to impose a 10% - 15% tariff on the world, valid for 150 days. The Middle East situation has also tightened, and the joint attack by the US and Israel on Iran has led to damage to its nuclear facilities and other key targets. Iran then blocked the Strait of Hormuz and launched a counter - attack, pushing up oil prices and intensifying the volatility of global energy and risk assets. This year, overseas iron ore demand has increased slightly, but affected by tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, the global economic outlook has weakened, and the demand side still faces pressure. In January, the global blast furnace steel mill pig iron production reached 106.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons (+0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. Excluding mainland China, the sample production of other countries and regions was 35.95 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons (+0.3%) and a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.1%; the daily average production was 1.1596 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,400 tons (+0.29%). Regionally, India has become the main growth driver, with its crude steel production in January increasing by 11% year - on - year. The production in Japan, South Korea, and many European countries has also improved. However, the demand of major iron ore importing countries is significantly differentiated, with Japan's crude steel production decreasing by 0.5% year - on - year and demand continuing to decline, while South Korea's increasing by 8% and Germany's by 10%, both showing a recovery trend [10]. 3.2.2. Overseas Iron Ore Supply is Expected to Improve - In February, overseas iron ore shipments first decreased and then increased. At the beginning of the month, the super - hurricane "Ilsa" in Australia caused Rio Tinto's Dampier and Lambert Port to suspend shipments for 3 days. Coupled with the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the overall shipments were still at a relatively low level. Regionally, shipments from Australia and non - mainstream countries decreased, while those from Brazil increased slightly month - on - month. Among specific mines, the shipments of Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG first decreased and then increased, and the weekly average shipments of VALE decreased month - on - month. The weekly average global shipments were 29.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. Among them, the weekly shipments from Australia were 16.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%, and those from Brazil were 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The shipments of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil were outstanding, with Rio Tinto increasing by 8 million tons, BHP by 1.3 million tons, FMG by 3.2 million tons, and VALE by 3.6 million tons year - on - year. From January to February, due to the low base last year, the global shipments contributed a large year - on - year increase, but in February alone, affected by the holiday, the shipment rhythm slowed down stage by stage. In March, the overseas iron ore supply is expected to improve. The impact of the Australian hurricane is weakening, and shipments will resume steadily. The rainy season in Brazil is gradually receding, and the production increase expectations of Vale and other mines are strengthening. Non - mainstream mines remain active. Coupled with the incremental release of new projects such as Simandou, the global supply is loosening, and the pressure on port arrivals may rise again [22]. 3.2.3. Iron Ore Port Inventories - In February, port iron ore inventories continued the trend of high - level accumulation. The inventory at 45 ports increased by 940,000 tons compared with the end of January to 171 million tons, an increase of 25.39 million tons compared with the same period last year, reaching the highest level in the past 6 years. Australian ore inventories increased by 3.09 million tons month - on - month, while Brazilian ore inventories decreased by 2.58 million tons; coarse powder inventories increased by 2.8 million tons, pellet inventories decreased by 430,000 tons, and lump ore inventories decreased by 1.67 million tons. The port throughput decreased by 110,000 tons to 3.2998 million tons per day. High inventories suppress the elasticity of spot prices and also reflect that the current pattern of loose supply and demand remains unchanged [32]. 3.2.4. Steel Mill Inventories - Steel mills actively replenished their inventories before the Spring Festival and gradually consumed them after the festival. Currently, the overall inventory is at a medium - to - low level. After the festival, they mainly replenish inventories on - demand, and the port throughput is maintained at around 2.9 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Affected by high port inventories and slow demand recovery, steel mills mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude, only maintaining rigid procurement, and waiting for the terminal demand to pick up before increasing procurement. The overall strategy is relatively conservative. It is expected that the number of available days of inventory may further decrease. In a low - inventory state, if the resumption of production accelerates after the festival, the rigid demand for replenishment is expected to be released, which will support the iron ore price, but the current high port inventories still restrict the upward space [44]. 3.2.5. Domestic Mine Production - At the beginning of 2026, domestic iron ore production was generally stable. In January, driven by the end of mine maintenance, the output increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, mine production declined slightly. According to Mysteel statistics, the iron concentrate output of 433 domestic mines in February was 22.618 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.2%, indicating that the output fluctuations at the beginning of the year were not large, mainly restricted by seasonal and holiday factors. Looking forward to March, with the end of the holiday and the resumption of normal production after the Two Sessions, the previously maintained mines will resume production intensively. It is expected that the domestic ore output will experience a recovery growth. According to Mysteel's prediction, the output in March is expected to increase by more than 2 million tons month - on - month, achieving a slight year - on - year increase [46][47]. 3.2.6. Ocean Freight - This year, geopolitical risks have dominated the trend of the global shipping market. At the beginning of March, the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz directly pushed up tanker freight rates, and the transportation costs of crude oil and refined oil increased significantly. Driven by this and affected by the mine shipping rhythm, iron ore ocean freight rates rebounded sharply. As of March 5, the freight rate for the route from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao was reported at 11.03 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32%; the route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was reported at 26.06 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11%. This round of short - term strengthening of freight rates has provided certain support for the imported ore price. Overall, the sudden geopolitical conflicts are reshaping the 2026 shipping market, and the volatility of freight rates has increased significantly [50]. 3.3. Market Outlook - Demand side: Iron ore demand is continuously recovering. After the Spring Festival, steel mills are resuming production steadily, with the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills rising to 80.22%. There is still room for growth in molten iron production after the end of northern production restrictions. However, limited by a profitability rate of only 39.83% and more than half of the enterprises incurring losses, the room for steel mills to increase their operating rates is limited. Overseas, India's demand has increased significantly, and demand in Japan, South Korea, and Europe has improved, but the US tariff policy and intensified geopolitical conflicts have brought uncertainties to global demand. - Supply side: The overall supply is becoming looser. As the impact of weather in Australia and Brazil weakens, the shipments of Rio Tinto, Vale, etc. are steadily recovering. Coupled with the incremental release of new projects such as Simandou, the global iron ore supply is loosening. Domestic mines are resuming production after the Spring Festival, and the output continues to increase month - on - month. Port inventories remain at a high level, reaching 171 million tons at 45 ports, and the supply pressure persists. - In the next month, molten iron is in an upward cycle, which supports the iron ore price. In terms of supply, overseas shipments are steadily recovering, domestic mines are advancing in resuming production, and port inventories remain at a high level, so the supply pressure persists. In terms of demand, steel mills are resuming production steadily, and molten iron production is rising; macroscopically, the Two Sessions have released positive signals, while overseas risks add uncertainties. It is expected that the iron ore price will rebound in a volatile manner, ranging from 700 to 850 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policies and production restrictions [53].