黑色建材日报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. The short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to show a trend reversal and are likely to remain range - bound and weak. Attention should be paid to high - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rates and daily consumption of cement and building materials [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Information: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.422%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,646 tons, a net increase of 7,318 tons. The main contract position was 1.7987 million lots, a decrease of 38,543 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Shanghai it was 3,190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.654%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 472,215 tons, unchanged, and the main contract position was 1.3988 million lots, a decrease of 31,275 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai it was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Strategy View: The overall price of finished steel continued to be volatile. Macro - policies will support infrastructure and manufacturing investment and underpin steel demand in the medium term. Real - estate policies focus on stabilizing the market and defusing risks, with limited incremental impact on steel demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined this week, and inventory continued to accumulate. For rebar, supply and demand both increased, but the inventory accumulation rate was too fast. Before peak - season demand is confirmed, prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak [3]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.71% (+13.00), with a position change of - 10,515 lots to 488,300 lots. The weighted position was 888,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 38.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.80% [4]. - Strategy View: Overseas ore shipments fluctuated slightly at a high level. Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments increased. Near - term arrivals continued to fall. The latest daily hot - metal output decreased by 56,900 tons to 2.2759 million tons. Steel - mill profitability declined. Port inventory was basically unchanged, and steel - mill inventory continued to decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: On March 6, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM605) closed up 0.62% at 6,130 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.69% at 5,868 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 332 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon price rebounded and remained volatile at a high level, and the ferrosilicon price continued to rebound [7]. - Strategy View: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has shifted the overall sentiment of commodities towards the bullish side. In the short term, short - selling may not be appropriate. Manganese silicon has an unfavorable supply - demand pattern, while ferrosilicon has a good fundamental situation. Future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black - metal sector, cost increases from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contractions for ferrosilicon [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: On March 6, the main coking - coal contract (JM2605) closed up 1.58% at 1,123.0 yuan/ton. The main coke contract (J2605) closed up 1.13% at 1,695.5 yuan/ton. The coking - coal price rebounded slightly in March, and the coke price also rebounded slightly [11][12][13]. - Strategy View: The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions" had a slightly positive impact on coking coal, driving up prices. However, downstream de - stocking and increased coal production in March will restrict short - term demand. Although the market sentiment has changed, there is not enough support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. In the long term, the coking - coal price is expected to rise from June to October [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The main industrial - silicon futures contract (SI2605) closed at 8,690 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.46% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 7,727 lots to 385,766 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton [17]. - Strategy View: The industrial - silicon price fluctuated. Supply is expected to increase in March, and demand from the polysilicon and organic - silicon sectors is also likely to rise. The market may see a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but inventory reduction will be difficult. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected disturbances [18]. Polysilicon - Market Information: The main polysilicon futures contract (PS2605) closed at 41,115 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.76% (-1,165). The weighted contract position decreased by 757 lots to 57,752 lots [19]. - Strategy View: Supply and demand in the polysilicon market are expected to increase in March, but inventory reduction may be limited. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is also expected to continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to new order transactions [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: The main glass contract closed at 1,055 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.64% (+17). The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises on March 5 was 79.637 million boxes, up 3.629 million boxes (4.77%) [21]. - Strategy View: Market demand has slightly improved, and glass manufacturers have raised prices. However, distributors' willingness to purchase is not strong. The government's real - estate policy continues to be "supportive but not over - stimulating", and there is potential for incremental policies. The reference range for the main contract is 1,070 - 1,130 yuan/ton [22]. Soda Ash - Market Information: The main soda - ash contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.83% (+22). The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises on March 5 was 1.9472 million tons, up 52,800 tons (4.77%) [23]. - Strategy View: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the actual procurement demand of downstream industries has not been effectively released. The cost of soda ash has increased due to the rise in domestic oil prices. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector in March. The reference range for the main contract is 1,230 - 1,315 yuan/ton [24].