五矿期货早报 | 有色金属：有色金属日报 2026-3-9-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The prolonged Middle - East conflict intensifies concerns about inflation and economic slowdown, suppressing the sentiment in the overseas equity market. However, the enhanced attribute of key mineral resources provides support. The TC remains at a low level, the copper mine supply is tight, the downstream operating rate continues to rise, and the scrap copper substitution is limited. The inventory accumulation pressure eases, and the copper price has support in the short term [2][3]. - Aluminum: The supply risk in the Middle - East region due to the conflict remains unresolved, and the planned shutdown and maintenance of South32's Mozambique electrolytic aluminum plant are expected to keep the supply tight, especially overseas. The domestic downstream is resuming production, and the increase in the domestic molten aluminum ratio is expected to reduce the inventory accumulation pressure of aluminum ingots, so the aluminum price is expected to remain strong [5][6]. - Lead: The lead ore inventory and lead concentrate TC have a slight increase, while the inventory of recycled raw materials declines marginally. The operating rates of smelters have decreased, and the recycled lead smelting is restricted by raw materials. The finished - product inventory of battery dealers is higher than in previous years, and the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate has not fully recovered. Although there is significant inventory accumulation at home and abroad, the lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and the narrowing smelting profit may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. The lead price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rebound as the supply narrows [8][9]. - Zinc: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate has a slight increase, and the smelting profit has slightly improved. The finished - product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have both increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The Iran - related conflict has a small real - impact on zinc ore supply, but there are still concerns about trade disruptions and energy price hikes. The sharp rise in oil prices has raised inflation concerns, and the downward adjustment of interest - rate cut expectations has put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The zinc price has a risk of breaking downward and is expected to show wide - range fluctuations during the conflict [10][11]. - Tin: Under the background of macro - easing and general price increases in the semiconductor industry, the sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong. However, the supply - demand of tin ingots is marginally loose, and the inventory has been steadily rising recently, so it is not advisable to blindly chase the high price. The intensification of the US - Iran conflict may put pressure on risk assets, and the tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - Nickel: In the medium term, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy and the steady increase in nickel ore prices support the upward movement of the nickel price center. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot market is limited, and the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has reduced market risk appetite. The price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [14][15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The intensification of the Iran situation has increased macro - concerns and significantly cooled the speculative sentiment. The commodity market is divided, with oil and chemical products rising and lithium carbonate and other previously rebounding varieties correcting. The total position of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate contracts decreased last week. The repeated disturbances of Zimbabwe's mineral ban have been fully digested. After the festival, the salt factory's operating rate has increased, and the inventory reduction of domestic lithium carbonate has narrowed. The spot market is in a tight supply situation during the peak lithium - battery season. The decline in the lithium price may release spot buying, but it is necessary to be cautious about being bullish before the downward trend ends. Future attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market [17][18]. - Alumina: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start - up have reduced the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end remains in surplus, and the high - level of warehouse receipt registration due to the premium on the futures market suppresses the upward movement of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to potential driving factors such as the production reduction actions of Guinea's mines or the price - support actions of the Guinea government, and the implementation of supply - contraction policies at the smelting end [20][21]. - Stainless Steel: After the festival, the arrival of steel mill resources and the stagnant sales during the Spring Festival have led to a rapid accumulation of social inventory, increasing the supply - side pressure. The market procurement atmosphere has warmed up, and some traders and downstream customers have carried out concentrated inquiries and restocking, promoting a phased increase in trading volume. However, the actual procurement of downstream users is still small, and most are in the preparation stage for resuming work. The overall trading is mainly the resource circulation among traders. The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern [23][24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased. After the festival, the demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of production in the downstream. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and the seasonal shortage of raw material supply, the price may strengthen in the short term [26][27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Market Information: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the copper price first rose and then fell. On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract closed up 0.08% at $12,869/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,250 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 2,125 tons to 284,325 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The domestic SHFE weekly inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 425,000 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts increased by 12,000 tons to 315,000 tons. The spot discount in the East China and Guangdong regions narrowed, and the domestic copper spot import loss and the refined - scrap copper price difference both narrowed [2]. - Strategy: The short - term copper price has support below. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 98,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,600 - 13,000/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: Due to the Middle - East conflict, the aluminum price rose strongly. On Friday, the LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 4.21% at $3,431/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 25,180 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 27,000 tons to 677,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons to 330,000 tons. The aluminum ingot inventory in three regions increased slightly, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The aluminum rod processing fee rebounded, and the market trading was average. The LME inventory decreased by 2,250 tons to 457,000 tons, and the cash/3M premium was $47.4/ton [5]. - Strategy: The supply is expected to remain tight, and the domestic aluminum water ratio is expected to increase, reducing the inventory accumulation pressure of aluminum ingots. The aluminum price is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 - 26,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,350 - 3,600/ton [6]. Lead - Market Information: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.02% at 16,781 yuan/ton, with a total position of 113,400 lots. The LME 3S lead rose $1.5 to $1,949.5/ton, with a total position of 171,700 lots. The SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 54,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 285,900 tons [8]. - Strategy: The lead price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rebound as the supply narrows [9]. Zinc - Market Information: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.04% at 24,295 yuan/ton, with a total position of 189,700 lots. The LME 3S zinc fell $55 to $3,256.5/ton, with a total position of 219,700 lots. The SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 24,150 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 76,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 95,000 tons [10]. - Strategy: The zinc price has a risk of breaking downward and is expected to show wide - range fluctuations during the conflict [11]. Tin - Market Information: On March 6, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 393,190 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output remains at a low level. The downstream demand has not been effectively reflected, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [12]. - Strategy: The tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel - Market Information: On March 6, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 137,550 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The spot premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [14]. - Strategy: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: On March 6, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 154,580 yuan, up 0.13% from the previous working day and down 11.03% for the week. The LC2605 contract closed at 156,160 yuan, up 0.19% from the previous day and down 11.29% for the week [17]. - Strategy: It is necessary to be cautious about being bullish before the downward trend of the lithium price ends. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 148,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - Market Information: On March 6, the alumina index rose 1.11% to 2,845 yuan/ton, with a total position of 457,700 lots, down 2,600 lots from the previous day. The Shandong spot price was 2,610 yuan/ton, at a discount of 222 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price rose $1/ton to $303/ton, and the import profit and loss was 1 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 337,200 tons, up 900 tons from the previous day [20]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain wide - range fluctuations. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,205 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets showed different trends. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased [23]. - Strategy: The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern, with the reference range for the main contract being 14,000 - 14,400 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy price corrected. The main AD2604 contract closed down 0.6% at 23,280 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased, and the trading volume shrank. The inventory decreased [26]. - Strategy: The price may strengthen in the short term [27].