能源成本扰动上升，供需博弈酝酿突破

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal supply is generally loose. After the Spring Festival, domestic coal mines resumed production rapidly, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. Meanwhile, the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance to a high - level and the accumulation of port inventory also contributed to the loose supply. The upstream mine inventory began to accumulate, while downstream coking and steel enterprises mainly consumed in - house inventory and were cautious in purchasing [3][48]. - The coke supply shows a steady and increasing trend. After the Spring Festival, the decline in coking coal prices led to a significant repair of coking enterprise profits. The average national profit per ton of coke turned positive, which boosted production enthusiasm, increased the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises, and increased the daily output month - on - month. The inventory structure features inventory accumulation in upstream coking enterprises and inventory reduction in downstream steel mills [3][48]. - After the Spring Festival, steel mills resumed production in an orderly manner as terminal projects started and profits were repaired. The blast furnace operation gradually recovered. There was a slight decline in molten iron production during the Two Sessions due to production restrictions in the north, but it is expected to resume the upward trend after the sessions. Currently, the raw material inventory of steel mills has decreased, and the expectation of replenishing inventory has increased [3][48]. - In March, the energy disturbance is intensifying. Although the resumption of blast furnace production is expected to improve demand, there is still supply pressure. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate upwards. The reference range for coke is 1600 - 1850 yuan/ton, and for coking coal is 1000 - 1380 yuan/ton [3][49]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In February, the coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. Affected by the Spring Festival, the supply and demand in the fundamental market were both weak. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated weakly, with the main contract down about 5.3% in the month. The spot price of coke remained stable, and the futures first rose and then fell, with the main contract down 5% in the month. Overall, the performance of coking coal and coke in February was weaker than that of steel products [8]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Rapidly Resumed Production - In February, coking coal production was characterized by pre - festival production reduction and post - festival rapid resumption. During the Spring Festival, domestic coal mines stopped production, and the output reached a seasonal low. After the holiday, the resumption of coal mines accelerated. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of sample mines rebounded by 14 percentage points to 82.3%. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal increased significantly compared with that before the festival, and the supply gradually became loose, putting pressure on prices [9]. 2.2 Good Momentum of Coking Coal Imports - After the Spring Festival, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal quickly recovered to a high level. The daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 1100 - 1500, with a significant year - on - year increase. Mongolia plans to export 100 million tons of coal to China in 2026. In December 2025, China's coking coal imports increased by 28.57% year - on - year to 13.7698 million tons, and the annual import volume remained high. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78% of the total imports. It is expected that the import volume will remain high and effectively supplement the domestic supply [13]. 2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In February, the coking coal inventory showed obvious differentiation. Affected by pre - festival inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises and mine shutdowns, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of 523 sample mines decreased. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises mainly consumed in - house inventory, and the upstream inventory began to accumulate due to rapid resumption of production. At the beginning of March, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of sample mines increased [26]. 2.4 Stable Coke Supply - In February, the coke supply remained stable overall. After the Spring Festival, coking enterprises resumed production in an orderly manner, and the supply gradually increased. The decline in coking coal prices improved the profitability of coking enterprises. The average national profit per ton of coke increased from - 55 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to + 17 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises and steel - mill coking plants increased, and the daily output also increased [28]. 2.5 Coke Import and Export - There is no actual data on coke import and export in 2026. In 2025, China's coke exports were 7.941 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. It is expected that the export volume in 2026 will be basically the same [31]. 2.6 Coke Inventory - The coke inventory features inventory accumulation in upstream coking enterprises and inventory reduction in downstream steel mills, and the total inventory remains stable. As of March 6, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased, the inventory of steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The total coke inventory decreased slightly in the whole month. If the terminal demand recovers, the inventory pressure of coking enterprises is expected to be relieved [33]. 3. Demand Side: Gradual Recovery after the Spring Festival - In February, the blast furnace production generally increased steadily, with pre - festival maintenance and post - festival resumption. After the Spring Festival, as terminal projects started and profits were repaired, the blast furnace operation gradually recovered. During the Two Sessions, there was a slight decline in molten iron production due to production restrictions in the north, but it is expected to resume the upward trend after the sessions. The demand for coke is expected to continue to recover in March, but the incremental space is limited due to the slow recovery of the terminal [36]. 4. Market Outlook - The coking coal supply is loose, the coke supply is increasing steadily, and steel mills are resuming production. The Two Sessions in March released positive signals, but the real estate market is still at risk, and overseas uncertainties are increasing. It is necessary to focus on the impact of global energy price increases on coking coal and coke prices. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate upwards in March [48][49].