动力煤：供需趋宽，煤价回调

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the supply - demand of thermal coal is becoming looser, leading to a price correction. In the short - term, the price is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as the entry into the traditional coal consumption off - season, reduced power plant restocking pressure, increased port inventories, and a weakening trading atmosphere [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Coal Prices: The report provides price data for thermal coal from different origins and ports. For example, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 613 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 743 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 62 yuan/ton. Overseas prices, such as the Indonesian FOB Q3800 at 59.8 dollars/ton, show a month - on - month decrease of 0.7 dollars/ton and a year - on - year increase of 8.8 dollars/ton [1]. - 3 - month Long - term Agreement Price: It includes prices for different regions such as Shanxi Q5500 (519 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton), Shaanxi Q5500 (462 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton), and Mengxi Q5500 (433 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at Beigang) is - 1. It shows that the port thermal coal market is running weakly, and the short - term price is expected to be under pressure [2]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - The port thermal coal market is running weakly on March 6. Entering the traditional coal consumption off - season, the civil load will gradually decline, the power plant restocking pressure is small, the supply in the production area is gradually recovering, the port inventory has increased significantly compared with last week, the market supply - demand pattern is becoming looser, the terminal's wait - and - see and slow - purchasing sentiment has increased, the trading atmosphere has weakened, and the quoted price has gradually loosened [2]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set the domestic market obligation (DMO) coal supply target for 2026 at 2.479 billion tons, slightly lower than the actual supply in 2025 (2.54 billion tons). The initial target for Indonesia's coal production in 2026 is 7.33 billion tons, subject to adjustment according to production reduction [2].