镍：矿端偏紧支撑现实，冶炼累库限制弹性；不锈钢：宏观风险偏好扰动，现实成本重心上移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is supported by tight supply at the mine end, but the accumulation of smelting inventories limits its upward potential. The stainless - steel market is affected by macro - risk preferences, and the actual cost center has shifted upwards [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 137,140, with a change of 870 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,205, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 381,533, a decrease of 82,914 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 166,882, a decrease of 35,283 compared to T - 1 [1] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,000, with a change of 200 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,088, with a change of 1 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,450, a decrease of 25 compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B roll - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Steel/Zhangpu is 14,950, with no change compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Policy Changes: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [1] - Company Operations: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions. The CGN mine is expected to restart between April and May 2026, in line with the restart of the PRONICO ferronickel plant [2] - Production Quotas: The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota is 12 million tons, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [4][6] - Accidents: A landslide occurred in the tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Indonesia on February 18, 2026, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5] - Company Reductions: Sherritt International Corporation has scaled back the operations of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply, suspending mining operations and putting the processing plant on standby for maintenance [5] - Sanctions: The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) has imposed sanctions on four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, and they have been fined according to relevant regulations [6] - Production Forecast: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) estimates that the nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [6] - Quota Increase Expectation: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) says that the revised 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% and is expected to be approved in July [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [8]