铅：再生纳入交割，价格承压

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of recycled lead in the delivery system will put pressure on lead prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 16,775 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 1,946 US dollars/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 39,263 lots, an increase of 319 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of LME lead was 7,266 lots, an increase of 366 lots from the previous day [1] - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 57,675 lots, a decrease of 1,690 lots from the previous day; the open interest of LME lead was 171,951 lots, an increase of 230 lots from the previous day [1] - The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -42.91 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.3 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -60 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import premium was 90 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -97.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.26 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import profit and loss of the third - consecutive contract of Shanghai lead was 277.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.26 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 54,376 tons, a decrease of 512 tons from the previous day; the LME lead inventory was 285,900 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 5,625 tons, an increase of 350 tons from the previous day [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] News - The sharp slowdown in US non - farm employment, combined with the war in the Middle East, has led to a continuous surge in oil prices, increasing market concerns about stagflation. Anxiety about the private credit industry has also pushed down US stocks [2] - In 2026, China's fiscal policy will adhere to a more proactive tone, with a fiscal arrangement in the tens of billions to boost domestic demand [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has officially included recycled lead in the futures delivery system [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]