合成橡胶：成本推升，中枢上移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "偏强" outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, cis - butadiene rubber is expected to run strongly. Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to a significant valuation premium for energy - chemical products. The visible inventory in the synthetic rubber industry chain has decreased, reducing the fundamental pressure on cis - butadiene rubber. The fundamental pressure on butadiene is also expected to gradually improve. However, geopolitical conflicts may increase intraday volatility, and trading logic changes rapidly with geopolitical news [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (04 contract), the daily closing price rose from 14,210 yuan/ton to 14,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton; the trading volume decreased from 344,886 lots to 299,661 lots, a decrease of 45,225 lots; the open interest increased by 18 lots to 34,971 lots; the trading value decreased from 2,445,863 ten - thousand yuan to 2,177,650 ten - thousand yuan, a decrease of 268,214 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber to the futures main contract decreased from - 210 to - 460, a decrease of 250; the monthly spread of BR04 - BR05 (private) increased from 100 to 105, an increase of 5; the prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged [1]. - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) increased from 14,000 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) increased by 300 yuan/ton; the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 200 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Fundamentals: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 81.7643%, the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber remained at 12,903 yuan/ton, and the profit of cis - butadiene rubber remained at - 303 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 18.80%. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand increased, and geopolitical conflicts led to an increase in production costs and supply prices, resulting in a significant decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and a slight increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [1].