深度亏损加速产能去化，低位磨底静待猪价修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the hog market entered the traditional off - season of consumption. The terminal frozen product inventory before the festival was not digested, and the slaughter enterprises had low procurement willingness. The pork consumption in the second quarter was difficult to improve substantially. The supply side was under pressure as the breeding subjects' unsold and back - pressured pigs were released in March, and the market continued the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The pig price fell below the full cost line, and the industry's deep losses forced the elimination of inefficient production capacity. Although the 10,000 - ton reserve meat purchase and storage had been launched, it was difficult to reverse the supply - demand situation, only slowing down the decline of pig prices. In general, the downside space of the futures market was limited, and it was in the stage of shock bottom - grinding in the short term. After the second quarter, as the supply pressure gradually eased, the pig price might gradually get out of the bottom range [7][80] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - After the Spring Festival, the hog futures market continued to decline in shock. As of March 6, the main LH2605 contract closed at 11,160 yuan/ton, hitting a record low of 11,080 yuan/ton during the day, approaching the 11,000 - yuan integer mark. Since 2026, the cumulative decline of LH2605 was 8.3% [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Price - Since 2026, the hog spot price has continued to decline, and the market has entered the "10 - yuan era". As of March 6, the national average hog slaughter price dropped to 10.29 yuan/kg, with a cumulative decline of 2.04 yuan/kg since the beginning of the year, a decline of 16.55%. The pig price has fallen below the industry's break - even line, and the industry has fallen into a deep loss. The price of 7kg piglets has returned to a weak downward channel, with the average price last week at 339.29 yuan/head, a year - on - year decrease of 24.72%. The average market price of 50kg binary sows was stable at 1,430 yuan/head, a year - on - year decrease of 12.86%. The average price of culled sows last week was 7.98 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.87 yuan/kg compared with before the festival, a decline of 9.83% [6][18][21] 3.1.3. Spread Situation - After the Spring Festival, the spot price dropped rapidly, while the futures market had the expectation of production capacity elimination in the second quarter, driving the basis to fall from a high level and turn negative. As of March 6, the basis was - 610 yuan/ton, and the futures were at a premium to the spot. The standard - fat spread in the hog market continued to expand in 2026. After the festival, it quickly narrowed. As of March 6, the national average price of fat hogs was 11.05 yuan/kg, and the standard - fat spread was - 0.75 yuan/kg, 0.36 yuan/kg narrower than before the festival [33][36] 3.2. Industry Dynamic News - On March 3, Huachuwang announced a 10,000 - ton central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage auction on March 4. Relevant departments held a meeting to strengthen the comprehensive regulation of hog production capacity, and many pig enterprises participated, focusing on assisting farmers, production capacity regulation, and the accuracy of early - warning information. In 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs promoted production capacity regulation by reducing the number of breeding sows. The listing pig enterprises' slaughter volume in 2025 showed differentiation, with Zhengbang Technology increasing by about 105%, Juxing Agriculture and others increasing by more than 60%, and Wens Foodstuff Group and Shennong Group increasing by more than 30% [37] 3.3. Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1. Supply Side - As of the end of January 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.58 million, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.08% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%, still above the red line of 39 million and at the upper edge of the reasonable range. As of the end of 2025, the national hog inventory was 429.67 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of January 2026, it was 429.02 million, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.15%. In February 2026, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49kg piglets was 33.09%, 50 - 89kg hogs was 29.36%, 90 - 140kg hogs was 36.35%, and hogs over 140kg was 1.21%, with month - on - month changes of 0.69%, 1.27%, - 0.74%, and - 21.11% respectively. The planned hog slaughter volume in March increased significantly compared with the actual volume in February, with a total planned increase of 17.63% [41][46][50] 3.3.2. Demand Side - The slaughtering rate of enterprises increased significantly before the Spring Festival due to stocking demand, but dropped rapidly after the festival. Last week, the slaughtering rate was 27.27%, a year - on - year increase of 2.02% and a decrease of 18.7% from the pre - festival high. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises last week was 84.6%, a month - on - month decline of 0.02%, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17.52%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The terminal pork demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises increased the frozen - product storage passively [59][64] 3.3.3. Cost - Profit Situation - Before the festival, the hog breeding profit was under pressure near the break - even line. After the festival, it fell sharply, and the industry entered a deep loss. As of March 5, the average loss per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode was 203.64 yuan, and the average profit per head in the mode of purchasing piglets was 127.21 yuan. The cost of secondary fattening increased with the increase of slaughter weight. The current willingness of the industry to actively back - pressure hogs might have dropped to a low level. The hog - grain ratio was 4.45, a month - on - month decrease of 7.12%, and it had fallen below the first - level early - warning threshold of 5:1, accelerating the elimination of inefficient production capacity [71][75][79] 3.4. Market Outlook - The hog market is in the traditional off - season of consumption after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The pig price has fallen below the full cost line, and the industry's deep losses force the elimination of inefficient production capacity. The 10,000 - ton reserve meat purchase and storage can only slow down the decline of pig prices. In the short term, the futures market is in the shock bottom - grinding stage, and the pig price may gradually get out of the bottom range after the second quarter [7][80] 3.5. Operation Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, if there were short - near and long - far arbitrage positions before, they can be gradually closed to take profits. There is no option strategy [8][81][82]