沪铜库存快速增长，铜价或高位震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [3][32] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2604 of Shanghai copper futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 100,030 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 104,540 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In February, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the critical point [10][11] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of March 5, 2026, the Chinese copper smelter's rough smelting fee was - 56.1 US dollars per thousand tons, and the refining fee was - 5.7 cents per pound. As of March 6, 2026, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumaomao was 101,120 yuan/ton, the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 89,250 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 2,945 yuan/ton, which was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15][17] 4. Inventory Situation - As of March 6, 2026, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 425,145 tons, an increase of 33,616 tons from the previous week. As of March 4, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 261,525 tons, an increase of 3,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 5.61%. As of March 5, 2026, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 85,400 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 97,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 119,300 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 5,700 tons from the previous week [21] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - In February, the manufacturing PMI decreased, the new order index declined, the copper smelter's processing fee continued to drop rapidly and was at an extremely low level, the refined - scrap copper price difference decreased rapidly but remained at a high level, the investment in power grid infrastructure changed from increase to decrease, the copper product output decreased slightly year - on - year, the Shanghai copper inventory increased significantly and was at a relatively high level in recent years, and the LME copper inventory increased rapidly and was at the highest level in recent years [31] 6. Future Outlook - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [3][32]