产区客商补货尚可，苹果分化趋势持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of apple futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, with a significant overall increase and reaching a new high in this round of rise [7][14][64] - The new - season apple production and quality have declined, and the low inventory strongly supports the price. There is a supply gap for high - quality apples, and with the improvement of demand, the apple price is stable and slightly firm. The apple market is expected to continue the polarization pattern, and the apple futures price may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [8][64] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - The main contract of apple futures AP2605 rose first and then fell last week, with an overall significant increase. As of the afternoon close on March 6, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 10,316 yuan/ton, up 556 yuan/ton or 5.7% for the week [6][14] 3.1.2 Spot Price - Shandong: In Shandong, the number of merchants inspecting goods in cold storage was fair. In Qixia, replenishment was mainly for general common - grade goods, with limited transactions. In Penglai, third - grade goods were mainly traded, and some merchants sought high - quality goods. The price of 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods in Penglai was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade fruit was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji slice - red fruit farmers' goods was 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 common - grade goods was 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits was 1.7 - 2 yuan/jin [20] - Shaanxi: In Shaanxi, the number of merchants increased, and some moved from Gansu to Shaanxi to find high - quality goods. In Yan'an, high - quality goods were slightly firmer, but overall transactions were average. In Baishui and Xianyang, e - commerce purchases increased, and transactions were mainly for low - price goods. The price of over 70 semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.4 yuan/jin, over 70 common - grade goods was around 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior goods was around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the price of 75 starting high - quality common - grade fruit farmers' goods was about 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin [25] 3.2 Production Area Situation - On March 7, 2026, the overall apple market in production areas was light. Western buyers continued to pick high - quality goods, and as high - quality goods decreased, some turned to Shandong to pick high - quality first - and second - grade goods. The demand for high - quality goods remained strong, while the trading of general and poor - quality goods was relatively cold, and the price of poor - quality goods declined in some areas [27] - Shandong: In Qixia, the inventory apple trading was limited. Some speculators bought first - and second - grade high - quality goods, and the transaction was based on quality. The price of 80 first - and second - grade inventory paper - bag Fuji was 3.30 - 4.30 yuan/jin, 80 above merchants' third - grade fruit was 1.80 - 2.40 yuan/jin, and 75 first - and second - grade inventory Fuji was about 2.80 yuan/jin. In Yiyuan, the inventory Fuji trading was light, with limited merchant enthusiasm and slow sales. The price of high - quality common - grade 75 above inventory paper - bag late Fuji was 2.50 - 2.60 yuan/jin, and general common - grade 75 above was 1.80 - 2.30 yuan/jin [27] - Shaanxi: In Luochuan, the inventory Fuji trading volume was small. Downstream traders restocked as needed, with good demand for high - quality goods and little trading of poor - quality goods. The price of over 70 semi - commercial inventory paper - bag late Fuji was 4.10 - 4.30 yuan/jin, and over 70 common - grade was 3.40 - 3.60 yuan/jin. In Weinan, the inventory Fuji trading volume was small, with uneven quality and chaotic prices, and slow sales. The price of 75 starting high - quality common - grade inventory paper - bag Fuji was 2.20 - 2.80 yuan/jin [28] - Shanxi: In Yuncheng Linyi, the inventory Fuji trading was average. The remaining volume of film - bag apples was small, and the sales of paper - plus - film apples were stable. Merchants picked high - quality goods, and the price was stable. The price of over 75 inventory film - bag late Fuji was 1.40 - 1.50 yuan/jin, and over 80 paper - plus - film late Fuji was 2.00 - 2.60 yuan/jin [28] - Gansu: In Jingning, the trading did not change significantly. Inventory holders mainly shipped their own inventory, and a few picked high - quality fruit farmers' goods. The price of high - quality goods was stable, and that of general and poor - quality goods was stable but weak. The price of 75 starting commercial fruit of inventory paper - bag late Fuji in Renda Town was 5.00 - 5.50 yuan/jin, and common - grade was 4.00 - 4.60 yuan/jin [28] 3.3 Inventory Situation - The peak cold - storage storage volume of late Fuji this season was 7.6675 million tons, the lowest in the past five years. As of March 4, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas across the country was 5.2753 million tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking speed was faster than the previous week [39] - Shandong: The storage capacity ratio in Shandong last week was 41.56%, a decrease of 1.45% from the previous week. The number of merchants inspecting goods in cold storage was fair, and replenishment was mainly for general common - grade goods [39] - Shaanxi: The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi last week was 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous week. The number of merchants increased, and some moved from Gansu to Shaanxi to find high - quality goods [39] - Other Areas: The storage capacity ratio in Gansu last week was 29.58%, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week. Merchants in Gansu were more enthusiastic about high - quality goods, and the price of high - quality goods rose. The storage capacity ratio in Shanxi was 27.86%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week. Merchants in Shanxi gradually shifted from seeking film - bag apples to paper - plus - film apples. The storage capacity ratio in Liaoning was 46.90%, a decrease of 1.94% from the previous week. Merchants mainly replenished general common - grade fruit farmers' goods [39][40] 3.4 Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Chalong market last week slightly increased compared with the first week after the Spring Festival. Actual transactions were based on quality. Currently, the number of arriving trucks in the market is small, the backlog in the transfer warehouse is not serious, the purchasing willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers is low, the market is relatively cold, and the selling prices are chaotic [45] 3.5 Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.3 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [50] 3.6 Key Fruit Market - As of the 10th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the 9th week. Among the six kinds of fruits, the average wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, bananas, and Ya pears increased by 0.40 yuan/kg, 0.06 yuan/kg, and 0.01 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 9th week. The average wholesale prices of watermelons and pineapples decreased by 0.47 yuan/kg and 0.45 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 9th week. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples remained the same as the previous week [54] 3.7 Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in December 2025 was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. Affected by the Christmas and New Year's Day festivals, the export volume increased significantly in December. Seasonally, the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year are the peak seasons for apple exports. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the first quarter of 2026 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [59] 3.8 Production Statistics - According to Steel Union data, the domestic apple production in 2025 was 3.43142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% from the previous year. The production in Shaanxi, Shandong, and Gansu decreased by 6.97%, 16.54%, and 4.45% respectively, while that in Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning increased by 9%, 11%, and 3% respectively [61][63] 3.9 Market Outlook - The main contract of apple futures rose first and then fell last week, with a significant overall increase. The shipping situation in apple production areas last week varied, with a stronger shipping atmosphere in the west and a weaker one in the east. Western merchants were more enthusiastic about high - quality goods, and the price of high - quality goods in Gansu rose. The shipping of general and lower - quality common - grade fruit farmers' goods was average, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm for this kind of goods was low. The overall shipping in Shandong was average, and transactions were mainly for low - price goods. In the sales areas, the overall post - festival sales were stable, but the arrival volume decreased, and the shipping slowed down. Overall, the decline in new - season apple production and quality and the low inventory strongly support the price. There is a supply gap for high - quality apples, and with the improvement of demand, the apple price is stable and slightly firm. As cold - storage apples enter the middle and late stages of sales, the apple market is expected to continue the polarization pattern. The apple futures price may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term. Next week, attention should be paid to the market trading atmosphere, merchants' replenishment situation, the trading situation of substitute fruits, and the weather in the main production areas [64] 3.10 Operation Strategy - Viewpoint: The main contract of apple futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [9][65] - Strategy: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, consider buying the 2605 contract and selling the 2610 contract for positive arbitrage; for options, consider buying out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [10][66]