华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output of 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui during the shutdown period is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the support for prices is not strong [4] - The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price continued to rise due to geopolitical risks. Trump said that the US is "seriously considering" expanding the scope of strikes, and the Mediterranean Shipping Company will levy an emergency fuel surcharge on relevant goods [3] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are still ramping up production, but the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has affected the production or shipment of some aluminum plants, and the daily output is expected to decrease [4] - After the festival, as downstream enterprises resume work, demand has recovered, the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by about 8 percentage points week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5% [4] - The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. On Monday, the inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared with last Thursday. In March, the ingot casting volume of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain high, and the short - term inventory accumulation trend will continue [4] - If the geopolitical conflict continues, the global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, and the aluminum price has strong upward momentum. The short - term supply is blocked by macro - factors, and the aluminum price is expected to be strong. The follow - up evolution of macro - events should be concerned [4] - The later focus is on changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [5]