格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260309

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The vegetable oil sector is expected to be strong, and existing long positions should be held, while new long positions can be entered. The double - meal market is also pushed up by macro factors, and long positions should be retained, with new orders to be bought on dips. [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils a. Market Review - On March 6, due to the ongoing fermentation of the US - Iran conflict, international crude oil remained strong, and the vegetable oil sector was also strong, with palm oil leading the rise. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared to the previous day, and the positions also increased. [1] b. Important Information - On March 9, due to the Iran conflict, major oil - producing countries cut production, and both WTI and Brent crude oil exceeded $100 per barrel on Monday. The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. The US EPA will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March. The US government plans to require large refineries to make up at least half of the biofuel blending exemption quota, which will boost the demand for raw materials such as soybean oil. From February 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month. Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. Malaysia's palm oil exports in February decreased by 21.5% compared to January. As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China increased by 2.23% week - on - week and decreased by 7.93% year - on - year. [1] c. Spot Market - As of March 6, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,720 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton; the basis was 308 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 18 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 52 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 196.08 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,290 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 180 yuan/ton, and the basis was 624 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton. [2] d. Market Logic - Externally, the US - Iran conflict is fermenting, international crude oil prices are rising strongly, the biodiesel concept is heating up again, and Malaysian palm oil is rising with surrounding vegetable oils. The spot price rises with the market, the basis quotation is stable or falling, and the downstream traders' replenishment is over. The oil market has entered the traditional off - season of demand. Although the factory's operating rate increased last week, it was only about 25%, and the output of soybean oil was limited. Traders replenished their stocks, so the factory's soybean oil inventory still decreased last weekend. Although the Ministry of Commerce imposed a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on imported rapeseed from Canada on the weekend, due to the rapid escalation of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices are still strong, and it is expected that the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures price may reach the upper track of the daily line. In the spot market, the basis quotation of far - month rapeseed oil continues to fall, and the market supply is gradually changing from tight to loose. [2] e. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, existing long positions in oils should be held. The pressure and support levels for different contracts are provided. [2] 2. Two Meals a. Market Review - On March 6, driven by macro funds, the double - meal futures prices rose sharply. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all increased compared to the previous day, and the positions also changed. [2] b. Important Information - Analysts' average forecast for the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks in the USDA March supply - demand report is 344 million bushels. The Middle East geopolitical tension may lead to a decline in soybean exports from Brazil and the US in the next few weeks. The ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2.3% increase from March 2025. As of the end of the 8th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China increased by 151,500 tons compared to the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory decreased by 1.30% week - on - week, and the contract volume increased by 32.90% week - on - week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed increased by 58,000 tons compared to the previous week. [2][3] c. Spot Market - As of March 6, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,106 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton, and the basis was 197 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,517 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton, and the basis was 52 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. [3] d. Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil prices are rising, and soybean futures are rising accordingly. The market is worried about the shortage of fuel supply at some shipping transfer nodes, which may delay the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, and the high price of US soybeans and the firm Brazilian premium provide cost - side support, and the sentiment of capital to go long is increasing. In the spot market, oil mills are operating normally, and there is cross - regional goods transfer in some areas. Terminal feed mills are mainly digesting their previous safety stocks, and their purchasing is cautious, with a lack of willingness to chase the rising price. Some enterprises plan to replenish stocks in due course after the price drops. [3] e. Trading Strategy - Existing long positions should be held, and new orders should be bought on dips. The pressure and support levels for different contracts are provided. [3]