金融期货早评-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has become the core disturbing factor in the global financial market, and the market has quickly formed five types of asset trading logics: risk - aversion, event - driven, repair, new main - line, and hedging. In 2026, China's economy will maintain a stable and progressive rhythm in a complex situation, with five major trends advancing in synergy, significantly enhancing the allocation value of Chinese assets. Gold also shows long - term allocation significance in the volatile pattern [2]. - The short - term trend of RMB exchange rate is affected by the resilience of the US dollar index, and it is difficult to restart the trend of appreciation. The key observation point is the change in corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness. Export enterprises can lock in forward foreign exchange settlement in batches at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.82 mark [3][4]. - The short - term trend of stock index is expected to be dominated by shock repair. The impact of overseas factors is weakening, and policy signals during the Two Sessions provide support. If there are more favorable policies, the stock index may turn stronger [6]. - For treasury bonds, the T2606 contract can hold a small number of medium - term long positions, and short - term trading should be on hold. The market is affected by the situation of the US - Iran war and A - share trends. If the stock market adjusts significantly, the safe - haven sentiment may drive the bond market up [7]. - The short - term price of container shipping on the European line will maintain high volatility, and the market is dominated by geopolitical news. Trend traders are advised to wait and see or participate with a light - position short - term strategy. Arbitrageurs can consider the 08 - 10 spread for positive arbitrage [11]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon industries are at the bottom of the cycle, waiting for capacity clearance and improvement in the supply - demand pattern. The Middle East conflict may increase the demand for distributed energy, and photovoltaic is an important part of the energy structure transformation [14]. - The short - term trend of aluminum is volatile and bullish, alumina is in shock consolidation, and cast aluminum alloy is volatile and bullish. The price of aluminum is mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The price of copper is in a shock - adjustment pattern, and the key window for verifying the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March. Zinc is weak in the short term and bullish in the medium term. Nickel - stainless steel is in a short - term shock, and tin is in a narrow - range shock. Lead is in shock adjustment [16][18][22][23][25]. - For oilseeds, the price is driven by funds and geopolitics. The price of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal will follow the trend of US soybeans in the short term. The strategy is to conduct positive arbitrage between spreads or widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For oils, the short - term price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the focus is on the US - Iran conflict and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [27][32]. - The price of crude oil is mainly affected by the Middle East situation. The key factors to watch are the degree of "physical blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the US - Iran situation. The price of fuel oil is supported by China's export suspension and Indonesia's festival demand. The price of asphalt is completely driven by the cost of crude oil, and the short - term core factor is the geopolitical disturbance [37][39][40]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation remains, but short - term adjustments may occur due to the delay of interest - rate cut expectations. For gold and silver, the strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, and pay attention to the support levels. Be vigilant against short - term technical corrections and panic selling [45][49]. - For pulp, the market is slightly bullish, and short - term interval trading can be carried out, while medium - term low - buying strategies can be considered. For offset paper, short - term high - selling strategies can be considered. For pure benzene and styrene, they are expected to be strong before the problem of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is solved. For LPG, the price is affected by the Middle East war and the supply situation. For methanol, it may catch up with the increase of olefins next week. For plastics and PP, they are expected to be strong before the situation in the Middle East eases. For rubber, natural rubber is expected to be in shock, and synthetic rubber is relatively easy to rise and difficult to fall. For urea, the war risk may drive up the price. For glass and soda ash, the price is affected by the fundamentals and market sentiment [51][53][55][57][58][61][67][69]. - For steel products, the short - term price is supported by the cost of raw materials, but the rebound height is limited. The price of iron ore has support in the near - term but limited upside space. The price of coking coal and coke has a bottom support but limited price elasticity. The price of ferroalloys has cost support but limited upside due to weak downstream demand [72][74][77][79]. - For live pigs, the price is at the bottom, and a sell - call option strategy can be adopted. For cotton, the price is in a narrow - range shock adjustment. For sugar, the price is in a low - level rebound, but there is no clear trend - reversal basis. For apples, the futures price is strong, driven by fundamentals and delivery logic. For jujubes, the price is in a low - level shock. For logs, an interval trading strategy can be adopted, and long - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [82][84][87][94][96][97]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Market Information: The conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate. Iran's oil storage facilities are attacked, and there are differences between the US and Israel on the scope of strikes. The US cancels the navigation warning for commercial ships. The US discusses seizing Iran's strategic oil export terminal. In Iran, Hamedani's son is elected the new supreme leader, and Trump considers military options against Iran. The US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [1]. - Core Logic: The escalation of the Middle East conflict has led to a resurgence of global stagflation concerns. The unexpected negative non - farm payrolls data in the US has raised concerns about the economy, but the economic fundamentals may not be as pessimistic as the data shows. The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US dollar index and corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness [1][3]. 3.2 Stock Index - Market Review: The stock index rose collectively last trading day, with small - and medium - cap stock indexes performing relatively strongly. The trading volume of the two markets shrank to about 2.2 trillion yuan. In the index futures market, IH increased in volume, while other varieties increased in price with shrinking volume [5]. - Important Information: Hamedani's son is elected the new supreme leader of Iran. The non - farm payrolls in the US in February decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The output value of six emerging pillar industries is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2030 [5][6]. - Market Analysis: The stock index rebounded last Friday, mainly a repair after the impact of geopolitical factors. The overseas situation still has uncertainties, but the impact on the A - share market is weakening. Policy support during the Two Sessions may drive the stock index to turn stronger [6]. 3.3 Treasury Bonds - Market Review: Treasury bonds rose last week due to safe - haven sentiment and then maintained a narrow - range shock. The funds were loose, but tightened marginally on Friday. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds were basically the same as the previous week [6]. - Important Information: The non - farm payrolls in the US in February decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Trump said there will be no agreement with Iran unless it surrenders unconditionally [7]. - Market Analysis: The information from the Two Sessions has a neutral impact on the bond market. The GDP target is in the range of 4.5% - 5.0%, and the fiscal deficit rate remains at 4%. The policy support for the bond market is limited. If the stock market adjusts significantly, the safe - haven sentiment may drive the bond market up [7]. 3.4 Container Shipping on the European Line - Market Review: The near - month contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures market opened high and went high on March 6. The main contract EC2504 rose 7% compared with the previous trading day. The far - month contracts were relatively weak, showing a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term [9]. - Information Sorting: The US - Iran conflict has both positive and negative impacts on the European line. Positive factors include the increase in war risk insurance premiums and fuel costs, the price increase by shipping companies, and the delay of the resumption of navigation in the Red Sea. Negative factors include the uncertainty of the conflict, the weak demand in the spot market, and the risk of over - supply due to the re - allocation of idle capacity [10]. - Market Analysis: The short - term price of container shipping on the European line will maintain high volatility, and the market is dominated by geopolitical news. Trend traders are advised to wait and see or participate with a light - position short - term strategy. Arbitrageurs can consider the 08 - 10 spread for positive arbitrage [11]. 3.5 Commodities 3.5.1 New Energy (Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon) - Market Review: The weighted contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,697 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 3.51%. The trading volume decreased by 10.08% week - on - week, and the open interest decreased by 62,600 lots. The weighted index contract of polysilicon closed at 41,576 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 11.09%. The trading volume decreased by 7.36% week - on - week, and the open interest decreased by 7,167 lots [13]. - Industry Performance: The spot market of industrial silicon and the photovoltaic industry chain was generally weak last week, mainly in the process of inventory reduction. The production of industrial silicon increased week - on - week, while the production of polysilicon decreased by 5.05%. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.7 million tons, and the inventory of polysilicon increased by 1.01% [14]. - Market Analysis: The Middle East conflict may increase the demand for distributed energy, and photovoltaic is an important part of the energy structure transformation. The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, waiting for capacity clearance and improvement in the supply - demand pattern [14]. 3.5.2 Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Industry Chain - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2.55%. The main contract of LME aluminum closed at 3,431 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.21%. The price of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also increased [16]. - Core View: The price of aluminum is mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The conflict affects the supply and cost of aluminum in the Middle East, and the market expectation of conflict mitigation will lead to a decline in the premium. The price of alumina is affected by the price of aluminum, and the price of cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to the price of aluminum [16][18]. - Market Analysis: The short - term trend of aluminum is volatile and bullish, alumina is in shock consolidation, and cast aluminum alloy is volatile and bullish [18]. - Copper - Market Review: The price of copper decreased last week, with the Shanghai copper weighted index trading volume decreasing by 17.8% week - on - week and the open interest increasing by 0.24%. The price of LME copper and COMEX copper also decreased [18][19]. - Industry Information: The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME increased. The National Development and Reform Commission announced policies to boost consumption and investment. The US dollar strengthened due to the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices [20][21]. - Market Analysis: The core logic of copper price has switched to a shock - adjustment pattern of "high inventory suppression + macro uncertainty + strong US dollar". The key window for verifying the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy [21]. - Zinc - Market Review: The weighted contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 24,295 yuan/ton. The spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,150 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 1 zinc ingot was 24,080 yuan/ton [22]. - Core Logic: The price of zinc was weak during the day and fluctuated narrowly at night. The unexpected non - farm payrolls data strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, providing support for the weak market. The supply of zinc concentrate may be affected by the situation in Iran, and the demand is gradually recovering, but the inventory pressure is relatively large [22]. - Market Analysis: Zinc is weak in the short term and bullish in the medium term [22]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 137,550 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.59%. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 14,170 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.04% [23]. - Industry Performance: The spot price of nickel and stainless steel changed slightly. The inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel decreased. The profit of nickel - iron and stainless steel production was relatively stable [23]. - Market Analysis: The short - term trend of nickel - stainless steel is in shock, and the market is affected by the situation in Indonesia and the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The demand in the peak season provides some support [24]. - Tin - Market Review: The weighted contract of Shanghai tin closed at 393,600 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 396,950 yuan/ton [25]. - Core Logic: The price of tin fluctuated narrowly, and the night - session continued the trend. The situation in Iran and the unexpected non - farm payrolls data provided support for the metal. The supply of tin is relatively tight, and the demand is gradually recovering, but the high inventory suppresses the price [25]. - Market Analysis: Pay attention to the support of the MA60 line [25]. - Lead - Market Review: The weighted contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,781 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 lead ingot was 16,600 yuan/ton [25]. - Core Logic: The price of lead fluctuated narrowly, mainly due to the price pressure and inventory accumulation expectation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the price is expected to maintain a shock - adjustment pattern [25]. - Market Analysis: The price of lead is expected to be in shock, and an interval trading strategy can be adopted [25]. 3.5.3 Oils and Feeds - Oils - Market Review: The oil sector strengthened, driven by the increase in crude oil prices and the expectation of biodiesel demand. The Chicago soybean oil futures reached a record high, driving up the domestic oil prices [32]. - Supply - Demand Analysis - Soybean Oil: The cost is driven up by the increase in CBOT soybean futures, and the supply pressure is relieved due to the low arrival volume of soybeans in the first quarter. However, the global soybean supply is still abundant, which restricts the upward space of soybean oil prices [32]. - Palm Oil: It is in the traditional production - reduction season, and the production in Malaysia is decreasing, which supports the price. However, the export is weak, which restricts the upward momentum [33]. - Rapeseed Oil: The raw material supply is abundant, and the global rapeseed production is increasing. The market is optimistic about the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports, and the supply is expected to be loose [33]. - Market Analysis: The short - term focus is on the US - Iran conflict and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The strength of the three oils is different [33]. - Feeds - Market Review: The price of US soybeans continued to rise, and the domestic market followed suit. The spot price of soybeans increased over the weekend [27][30]. - Supply - Demand Analysis - Imported Soybeans: The arrival volume in March is about 5 million tons, and in April is about 9 million tons. The supply pressure is expected to decrease due to geopolitical disturbances and the delay of domestic reserve sales [27][30]. - Domestic Soybean Meal: The spot market is relatively calm, and the basis continues to shrink. The inventory of soybean meal is expected to increase, and the downstream procurement is not active