格林期货早盘提示：国债-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The 2 - month PMI indicators show a mild economy, and the 2026 government work report's economic growth target and deficit rate are in line with market expectations. The stock market (Wande A - share) rose slightly last Friday, and the trading volume shrank. Treasury bond futures showed a sideways movement last Friday, and they may fluctuate in the short - term. [1][2] - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2606 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 fell 0.01%. [1] - Last Friday, Wande A - share opened slightly lower, rose in the morning session, fluctuated sideways in the afternoon, and closed up 0.71% with a trading volume of 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day's 2.41 trillion yuan. [2] Important Information - Open market: Last Friday, the central bank conducted 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 269 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan. The central bank also carried out 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases due. [1] - Funding market: Last Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market rose slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, compared with 1.27% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.41%, compared with 1.42% in the previous trading day. [1] - Cash bond market: Last Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.54 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year rose 0.29 BP to 1.53%, the 10 - year rose 0.31 BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year rose 0.95 BP to 2.28%. [1] - Global manufacturing: In February 2026, the global manufacturing PMI was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion range for two consecutive months. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have brought uncertainties to the global economic recovery. [1] - Fiscal policy: In 2026, the total fiscal expenditure will exceed 30 trillion yuan for the first time, the new government bond scale will reach 11.89 trillion yuan, and the central government's transfer payments to local governments will reach 10.42 trillion yuan. The central government has also arranged 100 billion yuan for a package of fiscal - financial policies to boost domestic demand, and there is a 250 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in policy. [1] - Monetary policy: The central bank will flexibly use multiple monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, guide and regulate interest rates, and promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. The central bank will also innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market and expand the scale of re - loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 - 1000 billion yuan. [2] - US economic data: In February, the US unemployment rate was 4.4% (estimated 4.3%, previous value 4.3%); in January, retail sales decreased 0.2% month - on - month (estimated - 0.3%, previous value 0%); in February, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 (estimated increase of 55,000, previous value increase of 130,000). [2] - International situation: Mujtaba, the son of Khamenei, was elected the new supreme leader of Iran. Due to the war, oil transportation in the Middle East has been continuously blocked, and major oil - producing countries have announced production cuts, leading to a continuous increase in international oil prices. [2]