格林大华期货早盘提示：集运欧线-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping European line is bullish [1] Core View of the Report - Due to the continuous escalation of the US - Iran war, although the US claims a tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz, full opening is far off and Red Sea resumption of navigation is even more uncertain. With the international crude oil price rising over the weekend, container shipping on the European line may still rise in the short - term, but volatility risks are increasing. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations and strictly control risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the EC2604 contract closed down but with a positive candlestick. Near - month contracts closed down while far - month contracts closed up [1] Important News - On March 6, an Iranian military spokesman said Iran would attack enemy positions more fiercely and extensively in the coming days [1] - Iran's permanent delegation to the UN stated that the claim of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz was groundless [1] - Trump said no agreement with Iran would be reached unless it unconditionally surrendered and that Iran might face "a very heavy blow" [1] - Iran's Assembly of Experts determined Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader [1] - Affected by the war, oil transportation in the Middle East is hindered, major oil - producing countries have cut production, and international oil prices have continued to rise. On the morning of March 9, WTI and Brent crude oil futures once reached $110/barrel [1] - US Energy Secretary Wright said a large oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz and normal shipping was approaching. He also pointed out that the oil price surge was due to uncertainties around the Iranian conflict and might last for weeks [1] Market Logic - On March 6, Maersk suspended services on two routes connecting the Middle East with Asia and Europe due to the ongoing Middle East conflict disrupting the global supply chain [1] - On March 6, the SCFI index closed at 1489.19, up 156.08 week - on - week [1] - In terms of spot freight rates, most major shipping companies plan to raise rates in late March, but the increases vary significantly. For example, CMA CGM plans to raise rates for 40 - foot containers by $3100; COSCO and Mediterranean Shipping Company plan to raise rates to $4000 for 40 - foot containers, and ONE also plans to follow suit. Maersk's pricing strategy is more cautious, with a rate of $2200 for 40 - foot containers and $2300 for 40 - foot high - cube containers in week 12. Considering March is the traditional off - season for freight and there is no significant rush to export photovoltaic products, weak market conditions still suppress European line freight rates [1] Trading Strategy - Given the continuous development of the US - Iran war and the rising international crude oil price over the weekend, container shipping on the European line may continue to rise in the short - term with increased volatility risks. Short - term operations are recommended with strict risk control [1]