格林期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The short - term uncertainty in the market is relatively large, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 2.02% to $5181.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.06% to $84.69 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.89%, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 2.39% to 21692 yuan per kilogram [1] - The US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.96 on Friday, up 1.34% for the whole week; the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell slightly to 4.13% after rising for 4 consecutive days [1] Important Information - On March 6, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Trust decreased by 2.573 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1073.321 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - Silver Trust decreased by 47.9 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 15761.62 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.5%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 17.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.7%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 41.5% [1] - The US unemployment rate in February was 4.4%, with an estimate of 4.3% and a previous value of 4.3% [1][2] - US retail sales in January decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with an estimate of - 0.3% and a previous value of 0% [1] - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US decreased by 92,000 in February, with an estimate of an increase of 55,000 and a previous value of an increase of 130,000 [1][2] - China has increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month. At the end of February 2026, China's gold reserves rose to 74.22 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of the previous month [1] - Mujtaba, the son of Khamenei, was elected the new supreme leader of Iran. Trump said that the new supreme leader of Iran would not stay in power for long without his approval. Affected by the war, oil transportation in the Middle East has been continuously blocked, and major oil - producing countries such as Iraq and Qatar have previously announced production cuts, and the increase in international oil prices has continued to expand [1] Market Logic - The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices, driving up the global inflation expectation, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has decreased, and the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of the US Treasury bond yield have suppressed precious metals [2] - The high cost of the US military action against Iran on Friday and Iran's statement of refusing to negotiate and preparing for a long - term war have intensified market risk - aversion sentiment. The weak US non - farm data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and traders' probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June has increased, jointly driving up the price of precious metals on Friday [2]