GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-09 02:45Geopolitical Risks - Short-term geopolitical conditions remain a key variable affecting asset prices, with uncertain prospects ahead[1] - The upcoming Iranian Supreme Leader election may significantly influence the direction of the conflict, potentially leading to increased volatility[1] - The U.S. administration, facing midterm election pressures, has strong incentives to expedite negotiations to end the conflict, but may be constrained by Iran's response capabilities[1] Market Performance - For the week of March 2-8, 2026, major global stock markets experienced declines: Shanghai Composite down 0.93%, S&P 500 down 2.02%, and Nikkei 225 down 5.33%[12] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with IPE Brent crude futures rising by 28.68% and COMEX copper falling by 3.69%[12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls saw a significant drop of 92,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, exceeding expectations[13] - Despite the employment decline, the ISM manufacturing PMI remained robust at 52.4%, indicating continued economic strength[13] - In the Eurozone, manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8%, while service PMI was at 51.8%, suggesting moderate economic recovery[14] Risk Factors - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East present high uncertainty in the short term, which could impact market stability[19] - Potential new tariff risks may arise following the Trump administration's legal challenges regarding equal tariffs[19]