全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, is the dominant factor in the market. It has led to increased market volatility, a decline in risk appetite, a sharp rise in oil prices, and an increase in global inflationary pressures [4]. - The A - share market shows some resilience and independence, but as the US - Iran war continues, China may face rising foreign trade and raw material costs, and there are concerns about the suppression of risk - assets by liquidity changes in a stagflation scenario [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The Middle - East situation, with blocked transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, increased global inflationary pressures, reduced the Fed's short - term willingness to cut interest rates, and increased the market's expectation of the ECB's interest rate hike [4]. - The unexpected US February non - farm payroll report has increased the risk of the US getting into a long - term war and the risk of stagflation, which is negative for the stock market and makes global bond yields more likely to rise [4]. - Overseas turmoil affects China's risk appetite, but the A - share market shows resilience. However, as the US - Iran war continues, China may face cost increases and liquidity risks [4]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global stock markets generally declined this week. In developed markets, the S&P 500 fell 2.02%, the German DAX fell 6.70%, etc.; in emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93% relatively resistant, while the Saudi All - Share Index rose 2.87% [6][7]. - MSCI global indices generally declined, with the order of decline being developed > global > frontier > emerging [7]. 3.2.2 Currency Market - This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound, reaching 99, up 1.54% from last week. The on - shore RMB depreciated 0.62% to around 6.90. Emerging market and developed - country currencies generally weakened [8]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - Inflation concerns have led to an upward trend in the yields of ten - year government bonds in major developed countries. In emerging markets, China's bond yield slightly declined to 1.78%, while India and Brazil's bond yields increased [13]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to a rapid rise in energy prices, with WTI crude oil rising 35.64% and natural gas rising 11.38%. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have corrected [22]. - In the domestic commodity market, there are both gains and losses, with the order of performance being energy and chemicals > industrial products > black metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals [22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes | Asset Class | Rating | Investment Advice | | --- | --- | --- | | Gold | Weak and volatile | The Middle - East situation has pushed up oil prices and inflation, reducing the Fed's rate - cut expectation, which pressures gold, but stagflation risk is positive for gold [24]. | | US Dollar | Volatile | The unexpected US - Iran war has strengthened the US dollar in the short term [24]. | | US Stocks | Bearish | High oil prices increase the risk of rising AI electricity and financing costs, and US stocks may continue to be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks [24]. | | A - shares | Volatile | The US - Iran conflict affects the market. Although China has relative advantages, there are concerns about the suppression of risk - assets by liquidity changes in a stagflation scenario [24]. | | Government Bonds | Volatile | If the market expects the war to end soon, the bond market should be slightly stronger and volatile. However, the high unpredictability of the war requires close attention to its progress and inflation risks [24]. | 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US GDPNow model predicts a Q1 growth rate of 2.12%. Retail sales are growing, and the employment market remains resilient [74]. - The US banking system's liquidity is still tight, and the credit spread of high - yield corporate bonds has risen. The market expects the first Fed rate cut to be postponed to September, with only one rate cut expected in 2026 [81]. - The US February non - farm employment was unexpectedly weak, but the service industry PMI continued to rebound [84]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market has a supply rebound faster than demand. There are expectations for incremental policies, but the path to improving expectations is unclear [90]. - The inter - bank market's repurchase rate and trading volume have changed, with the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week at 1.49%, 1.41%, 1.32%, and 1.41% respectively as of March 6 [93]. - Economic data shows a pattern of weakening in total, with supply stronger than demand in structure and domestic demand weaker than external demand [94]. - In January, PPI continued to recover while CPI declined. In December, import and export growth rates exceeded expectations [108][114].