观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260309

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2]. - Silver: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction [2]. - Copper: The real - end is weak, and prices are under pressure [2]. - Zinc: It shows range - bound fluctuations [2]. - Lead: The inclusion of recycled lead in delivery puts pressure on prices [2]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [2]. - Aluminum: Overseas supply is substantially tight [2]. - Alumina: The disk sentiment is highly volatile [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: It fluctuates following gold and silver [2]. - Palladium: High - frequency data is pessimistic, indicating weak prices [2]. - Nickel: Tightness at the ore end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits its elasticity [2]. - Stainless steel: Macroeconomic risk appetite causes disturbances, and the actual cost center has shifted upwards [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T + D decreased by 2.45% and 2.42% respectively, while Comex Gold 2602 and London Gold Spot increased by 1.02% and 0.63% respectively. Trading volumes and positions of some contracts changed, and ETF holdings and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: More major Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries cut production, causing international oil prices to rise by over 20% and spot gold to fall by over 1% to below $5100. Other events include leadership changes in Iran, "production halts" in the Middle - Eastern oil market, concerns about stagflation in the US, and China's continuous increase in gold reserves [5][7]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [7]. Silver - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Comex Silver 2602 increased by 0.86% and 1.78% respectively. Trading volumes and positions of some contracts changed, and ETF holdings and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [7]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 0.03%, and the London Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.08%. Trading volumes and positions of some contracts changed, and inventories and spreads also had corresponding changes [8]. - Macro and Industry News: The US non - farm employment cooled sharply, and the Middle - Eastern conflict led to rising oil prices, increasing stagflation concerns. Japan's copper imports increased year - on - year in January, while Chile's copper production decreased year - on - year. Revere is increasing investment in the US, and the US is facing difficulties in accessing strategic minerals in the DRC [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [10]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 1.06%, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 2.88%. Various data such as trading volumes, positions, premiums, and inventories changed [11]. - News: Iran claims to have the ability to conduct a high - intensity war for over half a year, and the UAE and Kuwait announced production cuts [12]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [13]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract remained unchanged, and the London Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.13%. Various data such as trading volumes, positions, premiums, and inventories changed [14]. - News: The US non - farm employment cooled sharply, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange included recycled lead in the futures delivery system [15]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [15]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 1.70%, and the London Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 1.31%. Trading volumes and positions of some contracts changed, and inventories and spreads also had corresponding changes [18]. - Macro and Industry News: There were leadership changes in Iran, "production halts" in the Middle - Eastern oil market, concerns about stagflation in the US, and calls for a cease - fire in the Middle - East [20]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract and the London Aluminum 3M changed, and various data such as trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventories also changed. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, similar data changes were observed [21]. - Comprehensive News: There are possibilities of lifting sanctions on Russian crude oil and concerns about rising oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz does not recover [23]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum: 1; Alumina: 0; Cast Aluminum Alloy: 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of platinum and palladium contracts changed, and trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, and spreads also had corresponding changes [25]. - Macro and Industry News: There were conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran, including military attacks and production cuts in the Middle - East [28]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum: 0; Palladium: - 1 [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the Stainless Steel main contract changed, and various data such as trading volumes, positions, prices in the industrial chain, and spreads also changed [29]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala, and there were production - related events in Indonesia and Cuba [29][30][33]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [36].